Tuesday, March 31, 2009

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue XIII

Welcome to our 29th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009), Volume II, Issue VI (February 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue VII (February 17, 2009), Volume II, Issue VIII (February 23, 2009), Volume II, Issue IX (February 28, 2009), Volume II, Issue X (March 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue XI (March 15, 2009), Volume II, Issue XII (March 21, 2009)In this week's issue, we bring you a special report from FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris that was gleaned from a baseball draft and an auction he participated in over the weekend.

The Most Important Factor – Value – Can Take Very Strange Forms

By Rick Morris

Mike Aviles for $44? Outfielders being taken in the first three rounds of a draft? Readers are doubtlessly asking: where has Value Fanatic Rick Morris gone and what have you done with him?

Well, I’m still right here, ready to break it down for you after a great weekend of roto baseball franchise-building. I participated in my non-keeper, 12-team, 5X5 roto head-to-head league, a group I’ve belonged to since 1993 and I also went through a silent auction for my 20-team, 5X5 roto head-to-head long-term keeper league. I’ve been in that league since 2001 and still have a few players from that first auction, inasmuch as you can keep players for up to ten years.

Now, everybody who knows anything about FDH knows that we preach value above all else when constructing a fantasy franchise, regardless of sport. It’s absolutely fundamental to our philosophy. By the way, while I’m linking like a madman, you need to check out, if you haven’t already, the only guide you’ll need for fantasy baseball this year: FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009.

It’s for that reason that I would argue that moves such as the ones above need to be made – if you determine that value is leading you in that direction.

Let’s examine the context of each of them, starting with the eye-popping bid on Aviles. Now, in this 20-team league, I generally enter the auction with only a handful of needs and I usually have a good amount of money to apply to each. I am fortunate that my core includes several $1 players acquired at the very outset of their pro careers, such as Justin Verlander, Grady Sizemore, B.J. Upton, James Loney and Jonathan Broxton, as well as other players similarly acquired early on for well below market value (i.e. Victor Martinez for $4 and Zack Greinke for $12).

[SIDE NOTE: Dollar values in this league are actually 50% higher than the ones listed here, but have been normalized to reflect the “$11 average” that most roto players follow. Our league values even minor-league prospects at the $11 average, leading to the fact that our dollar figures generally have to be normalized for people to understand the context of the league.]

This year, I needed to add one or two starting pitchers, a starting shortstop and backups at second base and shortstop. Overall, the crop of available players was as weak as I’ve ever seen it in my nine years in the league and there was a ton of money available for owners to spend, so we were all going to end up spending much more than we would like to fill holes.

I landed Derek Lowe for $34, giving me a pretty good “front four” in my rotation with Verlander, Grienke and Myers. Subsequently, in the $1 draft portion of the event, I also added Jose Contreras and Carl Pavano (whose selection was predicated by my declaration that "if my favorite team can dumpster-dive, so can I!").

But I still needed a shortstop, very badly in fact. Here were the only options that were at least minimally acceptable: Aviles, Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria. That was it! And my calculations, nine teams needed to fill holes at that position. I was screwed – or was I?

Nope. With the benefit of my remaining bankroll, knowing that I didn’t have any other major needs on this team and knowing also that there wasn’t anybody else worth spending money on, I put in my shocking bid of $44 for Aviles – for one year, of course! The next highest bid in our silent auction was $27 – so technically, I committed an overbid and a severe one at that. I was aware that, of the teams still needing a shortstop, I had still had more money to commit to a bid. However, what sense would there have been if I erred on the cheap side? I’d have lost the best available shortstop – and also, let us not forget, a dual-eligible player!

Now, given that there are no long-term cap ramifications to this year’s deal for Aviles, I absolutely did not abandon the concept of value to put in that ridiculous bid for him. While I don’t expect much more than league-average production from him, the combination of the black hole of talent available at the position and the big piles of caysh that other owners still had laying around dictated that I err on the high side. I entered the auction with defined needs and I used my money to fill them in ways that I am convinced left my team exceptionally well-balanced. Because of the market distortion of so many superstars in this league being owned for $1 because they can be acquired as minor-leaguers and held for up to ten years, money sometimes has to be spent in ways that looks inartful but is actually effective. I am certain that this was one such instance.

My experience in the draft league was not as wild-looking as this one, but it was unusual nonetheless. I co-own that team, the Uncanny Red Tacos, with one of my high school buddies, a gentleman named Paul Pasek. We’ve owned this team together since 1998, with a pair of titles to our credit, and have been playing since we competed against each other in high school in the late ‘80s. We think very much alike and we always try to build our teams on balance.

Last year’s team was a perfect example of that. We had few if any weaknesses, going wire-to-wire to capture the #1 seed, only to get bounced in the semifinals by having our only really putrid week of the season at the worst possible time. But breaks like that can’t be controlled, merely bemoaned after the fact. To us, a vital part of achieving balance is to try to hit our targets at each position and acquire our starters and bench players according to the mandates of our rankings. Positional scarcity has always been of paramount importance to us, so the area we’ve been willing to wait on and potentially have to make up ground has always been the outfield. In fact, while driving to the draft, we talked about this notion and how we got Jermaine Dye and our outfielders in general fairly late last year.

But what happened? We ended up with the seventh pick in this 12-team draft. We always take the highest-available player on our board in the first round and that happened to be Josh Hamilton. We generally follow suit in the second round and that led us to Matt Holliday. In the third round, we ended up looking at Carlos Beltran, the 9th overall player on our board, and we concluded that we could not pass on his value.

So did that mean that we kissed off our needs at the thinner positions? We certainly had reason to fear that our gamble would come back to bite us in that way, but past experience told us that there were enough inefficiencies in this league that we could survive – if we could thread the needle sufficiently by jumping about hither and fro, scooping up values at different positions right before they evaporated.

Our fourth and fifth picks made us very happy, as we added elite catcher Geovany Soto and mashing first baseman Prince Fielder to the mix. However, by that time, all of the ace pitchers were gone – but I believe that our top three of Chad Billingsley, Justin Verlander (there’s that name again!) and Erik Bedard stands up to most others in the league (with the obvious exception of the gentleman who took Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum with the 12th and 13th picks!). Verlander and Bedard in particular were excellent buy-low opportunities, legitimate ace candidates a year ago who have fallen further in public esteem than is warranted based on their abilities and prior track records.

Aside from not landing a true #1 pitcher, we hit EVERY other target that we had! With Steven Drew at shortstop, Aubrey Huff at third base and Joakim Soria and Chad Qualls as our closers, we did not fail in our objectives anywhere else. Plus, with Jim Thome as our DH and such young studs as Pablo Sandoval and Matt Garza added for depth, we cleaned up in the middle-to-late rounds.

Additionally, our taxi squad picks worked even better than we could have imagined. This league uses the very cool “farm system” format, with a two-round draft of MLB teams following the 22-round proceedings. When you draft one of these organizations, you get the taxi squad rights to all undrafted players from that team and also their minor league affiliates. As such, we added the reserve rights to such players as George Sherrill, Melvin Mora, Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller, Cody Ross and Cameron Maybin!

Ultimately, in addition to the obvious “nards of steel,” what it took to accomplish what was probably our greatest draft yet was to have the pragmatism to prioritize our wishes. True, we wanted balance across our positions, but we realized that balance is just a tool to help you achieve value. In our moment of truth in the third round, we realized that we could not pass on a player in Beltran who had fallen a good two rounds lower than he should have. Even if we had fallen short in balance, we would have been insulated by that just a tad by the explosiveness secured by a third-round Beltran selection. Balance is great and almost always necessary, but nothing is more important than value. By chasing value, we set ourselves up to withstand a bit of imbalance. By achieving both the value and still managing to avoid any imbalance, we set ourselves up for something potentially great. If the one-week sample size issue doesn’t kill us again in August, the sky’s the limit!

Saturday, March 21, 2009

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue XII

Welcome to our 28th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009), Volume II, Issue VI (February 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue VII (February 17, 2009), Volume II, Issue VIII (February 23, 2009), Volume II, Issue IX (February 28, 2009), Volume II, Issue X (March 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue XI (March 15, 2009)

In this week's issue, we bring you:

^ Spring Training Player Notes
^ Strategic Observations From the Two FDH Mock Drafts

Spring Training Player Notes

^ Max Scherzer: At this point, it appears that his shoulder issues will not preclude him from making his first start as the Arizona first starter in mid-April.

^ Chipper Jones: With his injury history, you have to be cautious about the notion that he will start the season for Atlanta. But hopefully, any concerns about his health are “baked into the cake” on your draft board and his creaky gut muscles shouldn’t pose much additional concern beyond what you already expected.

^ Kenshin Kawakami: While shoulder fatigue should be a concern, hopefully you didn’t consider this relatively low-ceiling import as a crucial player to obtain anyway.

^ Kevin Youkilis: He shouldn’t miss much regular-season time, if any.

^ Fausto Carmona: While there was reason to expect a rebound from his star-crossed ’08 campaign, the line drive he took off the forearm this past Thursday should lead to caution. Negative X-rays don’t necessarily mean the end of his woes.

^ Travis Hafner: The shoulder is now supposedly healthy, but the spring numbers are not, which is not a good sign for those hoping he wasn’t permanently mired in suckatude.

^ Shin-Soo Choo: One of the best fantasy hitters in ’08 on a per-AB basis, his arm appears healthy enough based on his contributions to the Korean WBC team.

^ Ervin Santana: Elbow? Uh-oh! Use much caution. He just started his rehab program, so you can’t be too optimistic right now.

^ Kelvim Escobar: He’s making a strong comeback from surgery, but if you count on him from Day One, you’re only setting yourself up for disappointment. Temper your expectations, even with the “miracle comeback” talk.

^ Manny Ramirez: Sad to say, but the fact that he didn’t get every last dollar from the Dodgers may well “affect his recovery time.” Don’t count on an immediate return.

^ Joe Mauer: We already had him downgraded, as we do every year, for “slappy-itis,” but his back issues should drop him lower as he can’t be counted upon until late April at the earliest.

^ Francisco Liriano: The Sporting News reports that he looks as good now as he did in ’07 – and he was the best pitcher in baseball that year.

^ Johan Santana: Seems good to go – and he’s the best pitcher of this generation when healthy.

^ Alex Rodriguez: Don’t count on him until at least May 15, so that slots him as no better than a third or fourth-round pick at best – and a bit lower, in our book.

^ Joey Devine: His rehab is going well, tentatively, but he’s not trying to go 100% yet, and he surely has lost ground in the closer battle with Brad Ziegler.

^ Justin Duchscherer: ‘08’s career-year poster child is making baby steps in his return. Play it on the safe side and assume he won’t be ready at the start of the season.

^ Cole Hamels: Proceed with caution. He will almost assuredly start the season on the DL, and although the stay may not be lengthy, he’s not necessarily a fantasy ace at this point due to time he’ll miss.

^ Mark Prior: He should be fine. Nah, just kidding!

^ Troy Glaus: He will probably miss about 2-4 weeks at the start of the season.

^ BJ Upton: It’s very unlikely he’ll miss much more than the first week of April.


Strategic Observations From the Two FDH Mock Drafts

Before we get started, we need to remind you again, for your own good, to check out FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009, a free joint electronic publication from FantasyDrafthelp.com and our pals at Sportsology. It was released at the beginning of March, so it is up-to-date in a way that other publications are not (i.e. factoring in the A-Rod surgery). This guide has a mock draft that we put together on March 1.

The second mock draft we are referencing here was held as a special edition of our FDH LOUNGE program on SportsTalkNetwork.com (Wednesdays, 7-10 PM EDT) on March 11. Normally, THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER exists as a “show-within-a-show” from 9:00-9:30 PM EDT, but this 49th episode of THE LOUNGE was completely given over to this event. We recapped it in full in last week’s newsletter.

With many of the same owners, and the drafts held a mere 10 days apart, many elements of the two events were similar – but since the first draft fell just before A-Rod’s injury was revealed, his draft status was much different from the initial one (third pick overall) to the second one (11th pick, 7th round).

^ While the conventional wisdom holds that Matt Holliday is worth far less in ’09 due to his transfer from a big hitting park to a big pitching park, our participants begged to differ in both mock drafts. Remember that this superstar is not going to be fazed by the dimensions, merely the carry of the ball, because the Rockies compensate for the altitude not only with the humidor but also with fence location. He may have more doubles and less homers, but that doesn’t translate to lower numbers across the board in a dramatic way.

^ Grady Sizemore is the first outfielder to go in many drafts this year, but he lasted until the late first round in the first draft and early second round in the other.

^ Folks weren’t inclined to take starting pitchers very high unless they were aces. That’s a sound approach to take this year.

^ In both drafts, owners heeded our notion that shortstop was far, far deeper this year than the other traditionally shallow positions of catcher and second base.

^ Even with many of the same owners involved, human nature does not always yield predictable results. We already established why there would be a big range in A-Rod’s point of selection in the two drafts. Much less apparent is why Jay Bruce would go at the top of the 8th round in one draft and in the mid-15th round in the other! Sometimes players will rise and fall in different leagues even with many common owners due to factors that cannot be forecast, such as different strategies being applied by the same owners.

^ Our lectures on how the power/speed gap has been closing in MLB were apparently absorbed by the participants, as drafters in both events were unwilling by and large to overpay for stolen bases.

^ Given that both drafts had strict mandates on positions that had to be taken, it was no surprise that owners waited until late to satisfy the middle infield slot. Additionally, they tended to stagger their last remaining need to differentiate from other owners so that they could get players earlier at positions still being actively contested.

Additionally, because our draft guide went to press so recently, almost all of our content is still pretty current. We’ll list for you one more time our Table of Contents for FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009.

Page 1: Draft Philosophy Overview, Top 72 Overall
Page 2: Starting Pitcher Rankings, Draft Board Decoder, Lessons of “The Stat”
Page 3: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, 2009 Don’t Be That Guy
Page 4: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, Relief Pitcher Rankings, 2009 Sleepers
Page 5: Catcher Rankings, 2009 Overvalued, 2009 Undervalued, Offseason Movement Winners and Losers
Page 6: First Base Rankings, Injury Risk Management
Page 7: Second Base Rankings, Designated Hitter Rankings, 2009 Position Battle Overview
Page 8: Shortstop Rankings, 2009 Prospect Rankings, Long-Term Keeper League Prospect Rankings
Page 9: 2009 AL & NL Scarcity, 2009 Players With a Wide Range of Opinion
Page 10: Respect Mah Eligibilitah!
Page 11: Third Base Rankings, Suggested League Guidelines
Pages 12-13: Outfield Rankings
Pages 14-15: 2009 Mock Draft and Analysis
Page 16: World Baseball Classic Draft Board and Suggested League Guidelines
Pages17-18: Russ’s Rants: Steroids, Blyleven and Schilling
Page 19: MLB Front Office Manager
Page 20: FDH Standings/Awards Predictions for 2009 MLB, FDH Minor League System Rankings
Page 21: 2009 Fantasy Overview, 2008 Legitimate Breakthroughs/Reclamation Cases

Sunday, March 15, 2009

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue XI

Welcome to our 27th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009), Volume II, Issue VI (February 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue VII (February 17, 2009), Volume II, Issue VIII (February 23, 2009), Volume II, Issue IX (February 28, 2009), Volume II, Issue X (March 8, 2009)In this week's issue, we bring you a recap of our fifth annual FantasyDrafthelp.com Baseball Mock Draft broadcast on SportsTalkNetwork.com from this past Wednesday night, March 11.


2009 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Recap

Before we get started, we need to remind you again, for your own good, to check out FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009, a free joint electronic publication from FantasyDrafthelp.com and our pals at Sportsology. It was released at the beginning of March, so it is up-to-date in a way that other publications are not (i.e. factoring in the A-Rod surgery). The guide does contain another mock draft with many of the same participants, held at the outset of March.

This mock draft was held as a special edition of our FDH LOUNGE program on SportsTalkNetwork.com (Wednesdays, 7-10 PM EDT). Normally, THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER exists as a “show-within-a-show” from 9:00-9:30 PM EDT, but this 49th episode of THE LOUNGE was completely given over to this event.

Here were the guidelines for our event:

^ We scored this as a standard 5X5 Rotisserie League.
^ Rosters consist of the following: 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 4 OF, 1 DH, 1 extra corner infielder, 1 extra middle infielder, 6 starting pitchers, 2 relief pitchers.
^ Standard serpentine draft rules apply.

Here were the particpants:
1 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Sean Trench
2 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Mike Ptak
3 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Tony Mazur
4 FDH Baseball Analyst Tim Foust
5 FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris
6 The FDH New York Bureau
7 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Nate Noy
8 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Mike Vili
9 FDH LOUNGE Producer Ryan Scott
10 Sportsology.info’s Russ Cohen
11 FDH LOUNGE Dignitary Jeff Maslanich
12 FDH Senior Editor Jason Jones

1ST ROUND
1 Sean: Hanley Ramirez
2 Mike P: Albert Pujols
3 Tony: Ryan Braun
4 Tim: David Wright
5 Rick: Matt Holliday
6 Steve: Jose Reyes
7 Nate: Evan Longoria
8 Mike V: Josh Hamilton
9 Ryan: Miguel Cabrera
10 Russ: Tim Lincecum
11 Jeff: Carlos Beltran
12 Jason: Mark Teixeira

NOTES: Rick’s Holliday selection is sure to be controversial given the dimensions of his old and new ballparks, but he forsees a whole boatload of doubles dropping in Oakland this year. Other than the Texeira pick, which was way out of whack vis-à-vis the FDH draft board, there weren’t many other surprises in this round.

2ND ROUND
1 Jason: Manny Ramirez
2 Jeff: Lance Berkman
3 Russ: Grady Sizemore
4 Ryan: Chase Utley
5 Mike V: Johan Santana
6 Nate: Carlos Quentin
7 Steve: Ian Kinsler
8 Rick: Jake Peavy
9 Tim: Ryan Howard
10 Tony: Brandon Webb
11 Mike P: Jimmy Rollins
12 Sean: Cole Hamels

NOTES: Jason is clearly counting on Manny being the Manny of August-September ’08. Russ got a better deal on Sizemore than many people are finding in their drafts and auctions this year. All of the Philly “Big 3” hitters went in this round, as did their ace!

3RD ROUND
1 Sean: Geovany Soto
2 Mike P: Brian McCann
3 Tony: Alexei Ramirez
4 Tim: David Ortiz
5 Rick: Brandon Phillips
6 Steve: Alfonso Soriano
7 Nate: Kevin Youkilis
8 Mike V: Dustin Pedroia
9 Ryan: Carlos Lee
10 Russ: Russell Martin
11 Jeff: Victor Martinez
12 Jason: Aramis Ramirez

NOTES: And there go the top catchers! We also saw two A Ramirez players and back-to-back Red Sox hitters, so there were your trends, such as they were.

4TH ROUND
1 Jason: Jonathan Papelbon
2 Jeff: Josh Beckett
3 Russ: Justin Morneau
4 Ryan: Jhonny Peralta
5 Mike V: Carl Crawford
6 Nate: Mark DeRosa
7 Steve: CC Sabathia
8 Rick: Prince Fielder
9 Tim: Curtis Granderson
10 Tony: Adrian Gonzalez
11 Mike P: Dan Uggla
12 Sean: Vladimir Guerrero

NOTES: Crawford and Mad Vlad – how the mighty have fallen! But oh, what values they may be! Morneau, Fielder and Granderson also have a very good chance of providing similar numbers to players drafted far earlier.

5TH ROUND
1 Sean: Roy Halladay
2 Mike P: Nick Markakis
3 Tony: Joe Nathan
4 Tim: Joe Mauer
5 Rick: Aubrey Huff
6 Steve: Francisco Rodriguez
7 Nate: John Lackey
8 Mike V: Joakim Soria
9 Ryan: Dan Haren
10 Russ: Brad Lidge
11 Jeff: Mariano Rivera
12 Jason: Troy Tulowitzki

NOTES: Jason took Papelbon at the start of the fourth round, but the real run on closers didn’t really materialize until now. Nate and Ryan may have received some nice potential ace value in Lackey and Haren, respectively.

6TH ROUND
1 Jason: Ichiro Suzuki
2 Jeff: Brian Roberts
3 Russ: Stephen Drew
4 Ryan: Jason Bay
5 Mike V: Mike Napoli
6 Nate: Michael Young
7 Steve: Ryan Doumit
8 Rick: Rafael Furcal
9 Tim: JJ Hardy
10 Tony: BJ Upton
11 Mike P: Matt Kemp
12 Sean: Chipper Jones

NOTES: There was a lot of focus in this round on shoring up the weakest positions: middle infield and catcher.

7TH ROUND
1 Sean: Alex Rios
2 Mike P: Chad Billingsley
3 Tony: Derek Jeter
4 Tim: Cliff Lee
5 Rick: Dice-K
6 Steve: Jon Lester
7 Nate: Derek Lee
8 Mike V: Feliz Hernandez
9 Ryan: Chris Davis
10 Russ: Roy Oswalt
11 Jeff: Alex Rodriguez
12 Jason: Francisco Liriano

NOTES: Young talent with upside was one of the stories of this round (Rios, Billingsley, Lester, King Felix, Davis, Liriano). At the end of the round, two risks with immense upside went off the board in A-Rod and Liriano.

8TH ROUND
1 Jason: Jay Bruce
2 Jeff: Scott Kazmir
3 Russ: Corey Hart
4 Ryan: Ricky Nolasco
5 Mike V: Adam Dunn
6 Nate: Bobby Abreu
7 Steve: Ryan Ludwick
8 Rick: Justin Verlander
9 Tim: Torii Hunter
10 Tony: Carlos Pena
11 Mike P: Chris Young (pitcher)
12 Sean: Joey Votto

NOTES: This round really was dominated by young talent with upside and was bracketed, fittingly, by two of the Reds’ biggest young stars.

9TH ROUND
1 Sean: Erik Bedard
2 Mike P: Ryan Zimmerman
3 Tony: Garrett Atkins
4 Tim: Zack Greinke
5 Rick: Magglio Ordonez
6 Steve: Jorge Cantu
7 Nate: Carlos Zambrano
8 Mike V: Yovani Gallardo
9 Ryan: Carlos Delgado
10 Russ: Chone Figgins
11 Jeff: Rich Harden
12 Jason: Joba Chamberlain

NOTES: Sean and Mike Ptak started the round with two real buy-low candidates in Bedard and Zimmerman. Jeff and Jason ended the round with two boom-or-bust candidates in Harden and Joba.

10TH ROUND
1 Jason: Ervin Santana
2 Jeff: Nate McLouth
3 Russ: Howie Kendrick
4 Ryan: Adam Wainwright
5 Mike V: Alex Gordon
6 Nate: Edinson Volquez
7 Steve: Jason Giambi
8 Rick: Vernon Wells
9 Tim: Matt Garza
10 Tony: Brett Myers
11 Mike P: Matt Cain
12 Sean: Brian Fuentes

NOTES: Kendrick, Gordon and Cain – if this is the year any of these guys turn the corner, then the 10th round will turn out to be way low for them.

11TH ROUND
1 Sean: Robinson Cano
2 Mike P: Pablo Sandoval
3 Tony: Ryan Dempster
4 Tim: Hunter Pence
5 Rick: Jermaine Dye
6 Steve: Brad Hawpe
7 Nate: Milton Bradley
8 Mike V: AJ Burnett
9 Ryan: Raul Ibanez
10 Russ: Jonathan Sanchez
11 Jeff: Derek Lowe
12 Jason: Gary Sheffield

NOTES: Mike Ptak loves him some tantalizing young talent, so the Sandoval pick was very unsurprising. Dye, Bradley and Lowe are good sleepers right here.

12TH ROUND
1 Jason: Jacoby Ellsbury
2 Jeff: Jim Thome
3 Russ: Shane Victorino
4 Ryan: Chris Iannetta
5 Mike V: Kevin Kouzmanoff
6 Nate: Ted Lilly
7 Steve: Josh Johnson
8 Rick: Travis Hafner
9 Tim: Johnny Damon
10 Tony: Randy Johnson
11 Mike P: Chris Young (outfielder)
12 Sean: Chris Volstad

NOTES: Operating under the premise that speed is at least a tiny bit cheaper than it was a few years ago, we saw the chase for stolen bases materialize somewhat in the 12th round.

13TH ROUND
1 Sean: Pat Burrell
2 Mike P: Fausto Carmona
3 Tony: Andre Ethier
4 Tim: Mark Buehrle
5 Rick: Jose Valverde
6 Steve: James Shields
7 Nate: Aaron Harang
8 Mike V: David Price
9 Ryan: Max Scherzer
10 Russ: Adrian Beltre
11 Jeff: Justin Upton
12 Jason: Miguel Batista

NOTES: These guys may not be ready to make it to megastardom this year – but they could eventually and this year may be an excellent building block for them: Carmona, Price, Scherzer and Upton.

14TH ROUND
1 Jason: Javier Vazquez
2 Jeff: John Danks
3 Russ: Clayton Kershaw
4 Ryan: Hiroki Kuroda
5 Mike V: Mike Aviles
6 Nate: Kerry Wood
7 Steve: Jeremy Guthrie
8 Rick: Mike Jacobs
9 Tim: Gil Meche
10 Tony: Armando Galarraga
11 Mike P: Jair Jurrjens
12 Sean: Edwin Encarnacion

NOTES: Many owners deferred on pitching previously and went in that direction this round.

15TH ROUND
1 Sean: Randy Winn
2 Mike P: Jonathan Broxton
3 Tony: Ken Griffey, Jr
4 Tim: BJ Ryan
5 Rick: Matt Capps
6 Steve: Jayson Werth
7 Nate: Elijah Dukes
8 Mike V: Paul Konerko
9 Ryan: Brian Wilson
10 Russ: Kevin Slowey
11 Jeff: Eric Byrnes
12 Jason: Ubaldo Jimenez

NOTES: Owners were filling out their closer depth in large part here.

16TH ROUND
1 Jason: Joe Blanton
2 Jeff: Bobby Jenks
3 Russ: Adam LaRoche
4 Ryan: Francisco Cordero
5 Mike V: Lastings Milledge
6 Nate: Delmon Young
7 Steve: Hideki Matsui
8 Rick: Scott Baker
9 Tim: Frank Francisco
10 Tony: Mike Lowell
11 Mike P: Shin Soo-Choo
12 Sean: Chad Qualls

NOTES: Milledge and Young are high-upside possibilities for this point in the draft. Choo had a heck of an ’08 campaign, especially on a per-AB basis.

17TH ROUND
1 Sean: Johnny Cueto
2 Mike P: David Murphy
3 Tony: Philip Hughes
4 Tim: Casey Blake
5 Rick: Jered Weaver
6 Steve: Justin Duchscherer
7 Nate: Oliver Perez
8 Mike V: Carlos Marmol
9 Ryan: Jason Kubel
10 Russ: Ryan Church
11 Jeff: Mark Reynolds
12 Jason: Ian Stewart

NOTES: The first three picks of the round were all very high-upside.

18TH ROUND
1 Jason: Huston Street
2 Jeff: Edgar Renteria
3 Russ: Khalil Greene
4 Ryan: Rick Ankiel
5 Mike V: Chien-Ming Wang
6 Nate: Grant Balfour
7 Steve: Billy Butler
8 Rick: John Baker
9 Tim: Kelly Johnson
10 Tony: Mike Gonzalez
11 Mike P: Andrew Miller
12 Sean: Luke Scott

NOTES: Due to the depth at shortstop this year, Renteria and Greene provided nice middle infield options this late in the draft.

19TH ROUND
1 Sean: Anthony Reyes
2 Mike P: Matt Lindstrom
3 Tony: Jose Lopez
4 Tim: Joe Saunders
5 Rick: Rickie Weeks
6 Steve: Aaron Hill
7 Nate: Orlando Hudson
8 Mike V: Nomar Garciaparra
9 Ryan: Orlando Cabrera
10 Russ: Gavin Floyd
11 Jeff: Jed Lowrie
12 Jason: Freddy Sanchez

NOTES: Unsurprisingly, most owners put off their middle infield selections until close to the end, due to the small amount of differentiation left in the talent pool at this point.

20TH ROUND
1 Jason: Jorge Posada
2 Jeff: Tom Gorzelanny
3 Russ: Heath Bell
4 Ryan: Brandon Morrow
5 Mike V: Xavier Nady
6 Nate: Benji Molina
7 Steve: Trevor Hoffman
8 Rick: Wandy Rodriguez
9 Tim: Placido Polanco
10 Tony: Dioner Navarro
11 Mike P: Jeff Baker
12 Sean: Asdrubal Cabrera

NOTES: As with the 19th round, the weakest positions continued to be filled out here, because if you got shut out of the prime talent earlier, there was no need to reach for the next levels.

Sunday, March 08, 2009

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue X

Welcome to our 27th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009), Volume II, Issue VI (February 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue VII (February 17, 2009), Volume II, Issue VIII (February 23, 2009), Volume II, Issue IX (February 28, 2009)

In this week's issue, we bring you:

^ The full Table of Contents for FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009, our brand-new free guide for the 2009 season
^ Advice regarding the selection of Alex Rodriguez this year

Table of Contents for FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009

Page 1: Draft Philosophy Overview, Top 72 Overall
Page 2: Starting Pitcher Rankings, Draft Board Decoder, Lessons of “The Stat”
Page 3: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, 2009 Don’t Be That Guy
Page 4: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, Relief Pitcher Rankings, 2009 Sleepers
Page 5: Catcher Rankings, 2009 Overvalued, 2009 Undervalued, Offseason Movement Winners and Losers
Page 6: First Base Rankings, Injury Risk Management
Page 7: Second Base Rankings, Designated Hitter Rankings, 2009 Position Battle Overview
Page 8: Shortstop Rankings, 2009 Prospect Rankings, Long-Term Keeper League Prospect Rankings
Page 9: 2009 AL & NL Scarcity, 2009 Players With a Wide Range of Opinion
Page 10: Respect Mah Eligibilitah!
Page 11: Third Base Rankings, Suggested League Guidelines
Pages 12-13: Outfield Rankings
Pages 14-15: 2009 Mock Draft and Analysis
Page 16: World Baseball Classic Draft Board and Suggested League Guidelines
Pages17-18: Russ’s Rants: Steroids, Blyleven and Schilling
Page 19: MLB Front Office Manager
Page 20: FDH Standings/Awards Predictions for 2009 MLB, FDH Minor League System Rankings
Page 21: 2009 Fantasy Overview, 2008 Legitimate Breakthroughs/Reclamation Cases

Selecting Alex Rodriguez in 2009

It's a truism we like to relate often: the point at which every player should be selected is the balance between the upside of potential production and the downside of potential risk. For most players, it's relatively easy to pinpoint at least a relative range of where they should be placed -- and because the ones not as easy to slot tend to stand out a bit, that's why we call particular attention to them (i.e. 2009 Overvalued and Undervalued Players on Page 5 of FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009).

So where does Alex Rodriguez fall into the mix with his hip injury?

Ultimately, the timing of his physical woes coming into the public domain coincided almost exactly with the publication of our draft guide, so we were obligated to try to answer the question as to his worth for '09 before we could complete its release. With his relatively minor hip surgery (for now), he is expected to play the bulk of the season, returning (probably) by late-May.

In the final analysis, we slotted him as a seventh-round pick and as an $18 player in both National League-only and mixed leagues.

Upon his return, after a brief reacclimation, his production should be in the range of "classic A-Rod." Of course, this is by all means uncertain -- it could be lower if the rehab progresses slowly and it could well exceed last year's numbers on a pro-rated basis if A-Rod proves to be healthier than he was down the stretch last year. The key is to find the balance between the projected scenarios.

And, rightly or wrongly, that's where FDH slots him.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

World Baseball Classic Draft Board

USA/Puerto Rico
1
Ryan Braun
2
Carlos Beltran
3
Carlos Quentin
4
Alex Rios
5
David Wright
6
Evan Longoria
7
Curtis Granderson
8
Carlos Delgado
9
Jake Peavy
10
Derek Jeter
11
Vernon Wells
12
Dustin Pedroia
13
Jimmy Rollins
14
Kevin Youkilis
15
Roy Oswalt
16
Scott Kazmir
17
Shane Victorino
18
Javier Vazquez
19
Derrek Lee
20
Chipper Jones
21
Brian Roberts
22
Brian McCann
23
Justin Verlander
24
Geovany Soto
25
Jeremy Guthrie
26
Mark DeRosa
27
Ryan Ludwick
28
John Danks
29
Ted Lilly
30
Jonathan Broxton
31
B.J. Ryan
32
JJ Putz



Dominican/Venezuela
1
Hanley Ramirez
2
Albert Pujols
3
David Ortiz
4
Jose Reyes
5
Miguel Cabrera
6
Alfonso Soriano
7
Vladimir Guerrero
8
Bobby Abreu
9
Magglio Ordonez
10
Carlos Zambrano
11
Aramis Ramirez
12
Adrian Beltre
13
Francisco Liriano
14
Ervin Santana
15
Felix Hernandez
16
Edinson Volquez
17
Jhonny Peralta
18
Carlos Pena
19
Jose Valverde
20
Robinson Cano
21
Carlos Guillen
22
Pablo Sandoval
23
Fausto Carmona
24
Melky Cabrera
25
Miguel Tejada
26
Melvin Mora
27
Jose Lopez
28
Dioner Navarro
29
Carlos Gonzalez



Other Countries
1
Ichiro Suzuki
2
Daisuke Matsuzaka
3
Kosuke Fukodome
4
Carlos Lee
5
Justin Morneau
6
Adrian Gonzalez
7
Jorge Cantu
8
Francisco Rodriguez
9
Joakim Soria
10
Jason Bay
11
Joey Votto
12
Manuel Corpas
13
Russell Martin
14
Mike Napoli
15
Jair Jurrjens
16
Oliver Perez
17
Mark Teahen
18
Jesse Crain
19
Scott Hairston
20
Jerry Hairston Jr
21
Matt Stairs
22
Frank Catalanotto
23
Nick Weglarz
24
Scott Richmond
25
Travis Blackley



Top 25 Overall
1
Ichiro Suzuki
2
Daisuke Matsuzaka
3
Kosuke Fukodome
4
Hanley Ramirez
5
Albert Pujols
6
Ryan Braun
7
David Ortiz
8
Jose Reyes
9
Miguel Cabrera
10
Alfonso Soriano
11
Carlos Lee
12
Carlos Beltran
13
Carlos Quentin
14
Alex Rios
15
Justin Morneau
16
Adrian Gonzalez
17
Jorge Cantu
18
Vladimir Guerrero
19
Bobby Abreu
20
Magglio Ordonez
21
David Wright
22
Evan Longoria
23
Curtis Granderson
24
Carlos Delgado
25
Jake Peavy