FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue XIII

Welcome to our thirteenth edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues:

^ Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Week 13 game-by-game fantasy preview
^ NFL Week 13 top 5 waiver wire pickups

^ FDH New York Bureau Report

NFL Week 13

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 7-9 PM EDT on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on helping you determine which of your marginal starters are worth a play this week. Hopefully, your initial draft/auction efforts were successful, because frankly, “playing the matchups” is far from an exact science regardless of what you will be told by other advisory services claiming to possess a crystal ball. But our weekly game notes are designed to try to help you maximize the potential of your situation. We will post this preface to the notes every week to remind you of the context of our advice. Also, each of our game previews links to the page for that game on CBSSports.com, with statistical information and a video preview of each game.

In addition, every week right here we will provide you a link to your ultimate Sunday morning last-minute news source: Google News. Although any updates from responsible news providers are very useful, pay particular attention to those who come from team beat reporters, because they are closest to the action.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. Figure on the usual suspects for both teams (the Niners’ one gimme at RB and the Bills ones at RB and WR), plus both QBs for good effect.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m. We can no longer recommend WR Johnson, barring any big change in his status, so the Bengals are down to exactly one good starter in his WR counterpart. For the Ravens, no members of the three-headed hydra at RB are great, even against this pathetic defense, but each is at least acceptable if you’re reduced to that consideration.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m. All-in (plus WR3) for Indy, while RB Lewis is worth playing now that he has mau-maued the coaching staff into giving him more touches. The Browns should be playing from behind, but QB Anderson isn’t worth much until further notice and TE Winslow is banged-up, making drop machine WR Edwards the only member of the passing game set to possibly make an impact.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers 1:00 p.m. These teams are mirror images this week in what looks to be a game of moderate-to-good offense on both sides: all-in except for TE. For the Panthers, that means either option at RB is decent.

Denver Broncos at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m. This one merits an all-in recommendation, including Denver RB Hillis.

Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams 1:00 p.m. Feed the Wildcat! Both Miami RBs should tear it up in the dome. For the Rams, monitor QB Bulger, who is more likely to play than not and would be a decent start – the same cannot be said for his backup Green, however. RB Jackson may not go, in which case his positive recommendation would transfer to Darby. WRs Holt and Avery look good also.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 p.m. Keep the Saints all-in until further notice, with the Garcia-Bryant hookup recommended for the Bucs. Stay away from their weird RB hybrid.

N.Y. Giants at Washington Redskins 1:00 p.m. It’s all-in yet again for the Giants, with Dixon and Smith now counting as your good WR plays and Ward as the likely starting RB. For the Skins, yet again, you should look at playing everyone except WR Randle El, with Betts quite possibly the starting RB.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers 4:05 p.m. This could be a wild one. Consider the Chargers all-in and the Falcons all-in except for TE (ironic considering that Crumpler once accounted for such a large percentage of their offense!). Keep an eye on WR White’s back, though.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 4:15 p.m. Don’t stray away from the Cassel/Moss/Welker nexus for New England. The Steelers are all-in, with some question as to whether Parker or Moore will be the main RB as of now.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders 4:15 p.m. If WR Bradley is good to go, the Chiefs should be all-in. Perish the thought! RB McFadden is the only Raider worth playing right now.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings 8:15 p.m. Both RBs have horrible matchups here, but it’s unthinkable to bench them. QB Orton and WR Berrian are the only other decent options in this one.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 1

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans 8:30 p.m. Call it just the usual suspects here: both Jag RBs, RB Slaton and both Texan WRs.

NFL Week 13 top 5 waiver wire pickups

1. Domenik Hixon: Once again, in the absence of Plaxico Burress, Hixon was making it happen. We need not remind you again that we told you to pick him up earlier this season the week before he broke out against Seattle based on a tip from Scout.com’s Ken Palmer. Hixon has many of the same attributes as Burress without being a pain in the posterior and if Tom Coughlin has a chance to give him a bigger role down the stretch, he will.

2. Mark Bradley: This is another guy we’ve touted before and he’s becoming a nice part of the developing passing game the Chiefs are developing.

3. Ashley Lelie: As we’ve said before, yesterday’s bust can be today’s value. Rarely will he have the motivation that he did on Sunday when he torched his former team, but he’s got more raw talent than anybody else in JaMarcus Russell’s receiving corps.

4. Kevin Kolb: The beginning of the end of the Donovan McNabb era came on Sunday, when Kolb inexplicably got put into a close game against Baltimore. Although McNabb started this week, Philly will keep sliding further out of the playoff race and the ’09 season will be starting soon for this young QB as he gets to work with some nice weapons.

5. Jerry Porter: At least he’s healthy right now. The Jags are in a mode of trying anything out of desperation right now, and like Lelie, his physical talents will at least put himself in the mix.

FDH New York Bureau Report

By Steve Cirvello

NYB Sneaky Starts Week #13
QB: Trent Edwards (BUF vs SF)
RB: Dominic Rhodes (IND at CLE)
WR: Antonio Bryant (TAM vs NWO)
TE: Tony Scheffler (DEN at NYJ)
K: John Kasay (CAR at GRB)
DEF: Jacksonville (at HOU)

RED ALERT (player coming off injury who could have fantasy impact):
REGGIE BUSH - RB: The Saints, coming off a big home win, still find themselves in last place in the NFC South at 6-5. They'll need all hands on deck to pull off the upset at
8-3 Tampa, and a win would give them a sweep of the season series. Bush had over
160 total yards and a TD in their meeting to open up the season, and the Saints will need similar production out of him to creep back into contention in the Division.

LOOKEY HERE: (team with favorable fantasy schedule the next three weeks):
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Week #13: at STL
Week #14: at BUF
Week #15: vs SF
The Dolphins are tied with the Bills at 6-5, two games behind the Division-leading Jets, and one behind the Patriots. They can remain right in the thick of the AFC East race with three winnable games on their schedule. Although the pivotal game in this stretch is at Buffalo, Miami has already defeated them once this year back in Week #8. Although they could lose the game, when those two teams hook up they are rarely defensive battles.
Chad Pennington, and especially running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, figure to have some very productive games ahead of them.

The Ricky-O Trio (three questions for FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris):

1 - Coming off his worst start of the year, would you start or sit Jay Cutler on the road against the Jets defense if you have a comparable option, or is an upset looming?

I think Cutler is a decent start. Although not the gimme he was earlier in the season, it’s still hard to justify benching him given the team’s weapons and style of play. I’m not sure about an outright upset, but I look for the Broncos to hang in a game that should have some scoring.

2 - Would you start or sit any of the Patriots running backs at home this week against the Steelers (Morris, Faulk, Ellis)?
Ugh … I see nothing of a high or even moderate-percentage nature here, especially against the Steelers. If you don’t have better options than these three guys, you have my sympathies.

3 - Since the Chargers are desperate for a win this week at home against the Falcons, would you sneak players such as Darren Sproles and Malcolm Floyd in your lineup?

Boy, you’d really have to have some injuries or a ton of bad matchups elsewhere to look at getting these bench guys in there, notwithstanding the likelihood of a shootout.