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Thursday, September 04, 2008
FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue I
Welcome to the initial issue of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter! Through this organizational structure, we will make the content on our fantasy sports blog more predictable and thus of more use to you, our loyal readers. In this, our first-ever issue of this weekly newsletter, we will focus on the following:
^ NFL Week One game-by-game fantasy notes
^ Our review of the aptly-named "BS Report" with Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry
^ Some fantasy hockey notes to get you hyped up for the forthcoming pool season
^ An early look at next year's fantasy baseball first-round probables
^ The NFL schedule for every week beyond this one
To be honest, we've been compiling content for this debut for several weeks now, so it may well end up being a bit bigger than our subsequent editions will be. We urge you to subscribe to this newsletter via our available RSS feed. On with the show ...
NFL Week 1
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Washington Redskins at N.Y. Giants 7:00 p.m. We don’t really like anyone from the ‘Skins yet with the exceptions of gimmes Portis and Cooley, although Moss is acceptable if you need to use him.Eli’s still a situational play, but he looks good here, as does Boss – who played against Washington late last year.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m. Detroit’s WRs are gimmes, and so is Michael Turner, so there are no real marginal plays in this one aside from Kitna and Roddy White.Notwithstanding Detroit’s abysmal pass defense, we can’t in good conscience recommend Matt Ryan in his pro debut.Regardless of what is said publicly, Kevin Smith is on thin ice with Rudi Johnson now in Motown.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. T.J. Housh and Ocho Cinco look ready to go, and they’re beyond obvious as plays if they are, but keep tabs on that leading up to gametime.Same goes for the banged-up McGahee, who is somewhat less likely to play; if he sits, Ray Rice is a must start against this terrible defense.Heap also may not play, and if he doesn’t, there’s nobody else worth recommending in the Baltimore lineup.Chris Perry is a marginal play at best against this defense.
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. Both QBs are hurt and should play, although only Hasselbeck is a really good option between the two.Julius Jones and Nate Burleson are not great options, while Buffalo’s gimme tandem of Lynch and Evans are the only worthy starters for now.
N.Y. Jets at Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. Ricky Williams has always played well against the Jets, and is actually a better option for now than Thomas Jones.Wait and see on anybody else from Miami right now, while Favre and Cotchery are the “sometimes” plays who merit a look for the Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots 1:00 p.m. Trust nothing that is said publicly about Brady’s condition – monitor until game time.Welker’s value depends on whether Brady plays or not; if he does, the weak Chief secondary will have to double-team Moss and Welker will prosper.Croyle and any Chief WRs not named Bowe must prove themselves before even being considered as marginal plays.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m. This is our first all-in game of the season in terms of marginal players.The Deuce should be healthy and Galloway always feasts on the Saints, so even those who had had injury question marks look good here.
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m. We’re still wary on DeSean Jackson as a starting WR right off the bat, but this looks like a good situation to play him if you are thin at the position and you must make a gamble of some sort.At least Curtis and Brown won’t be in there to take away opportunities from him.This is a good week to sit Bulger if you can inasmuch as he’ll be facing a great secondary.This is actually a pretty weak game for marginal plays.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 p.m. Don’t sweat Andre Johnson or “Fast Willie,” they’ll both be in there.As for non-gimmes here, Holmes and Ward should be good matchups, while the Houston RB situation should be given a wide berth until the dust settles.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans 1:00 p.m. Beware either Tennessee RB right now, as the picture is unsettled and the opponent’s defense obviously tough.Frankly, the Titans look like the rare “play nobody” team, with the exception of Bironas.TE Lewis is a great sleeper for Jacksonville, as he has done well against Tennessee.David Garrard isn’t a great play yet until his WR picture gets a chance to gel a bit.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns 4:15 p.m. With Cleveland’s secondary looking so atrocious at the moment, Crayton is one of the best marginal plays of the week – but with Lewis and Anderson looking ready to play and Cleveland probably airing it out quite a bit once they fall behind, this looks like another “all in” game.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers 4:15 p.m. We don’t like any marginal plays in this game, although Rivers and his WRs Chambers and Jackson probably come the closest under the circumstances.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid on O’Sullivan yet; only the gimmes of Gore and TE Davis should be in for San Fran.Warner and James are the marginal Cardinals who should get a look, although owners the Hightower situation should be monitored closely.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts 8:15 p.m. This Super Bowl 41 rematch in prime time will be notable for the Bears meriting “all out” and the Colts deserving “all in” – assuming Manning plays, and all indications are that he will.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers 7:00 p.m. Beware the banged-up Berrian, and for that matter, any Viking not named “Peterson.”For the Pack, Rogers and both of his starting WRs look good here.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders 10:15 p.m. Beware the Eddie Royal hype for right now, as it seems a bit overheated.Fargas and McFadden are good situational plays against this “weak sister” defense.
“BS Report” review
This podcast can be found on Bill Simmons’ home page on ESPN.com.It contains our various notes and observations about the conversation between Simmons and Matthew Berry.
^ Berry hasn’t read another fantasy columnist in 2 ½ years.I imagine FDH would have heard from him by now if he had!
^ Simmons referenced 2nd year WRs as a cliché – it’s actually 3rd year WRs.Duh!
^ Berry called a Torry Holt bounceback year – we actually really agree.
^ Berry says take Steven Jackson at #5 – we disagree (7), but not wildly.
^ Berry doesn’t want # 6 -- LT, Westbrook, Addai, AP, Jackson in his book, then a big dropoff – Simmons doesn’t want #8.In actuality, late-round is worse because of the falloff in talent that occurs in the early third round.
^ Berry is down on Frank Gore (1,109 total yards for a Martz lead back on average over the past few years – BUT – that includes the crappy Detroit backs!).
^ Berry’s next few picks in 1st round: Brady, Portis, Marion Barber!!!Apparently, he’s never heard of Felix Jones if he thinks Barber is going to play as much as other consensus first-round backs.
^ If picking 9 or 10 in a 10-team league, Berry takes Moss or TO and a RB.
^ “Is it too early?” Berry says, “It’s your team, if he won’t last until you’re up next, then take him.”To him, there is no objective absolute truth and you should reach for whoever you want because it’s your own team.What a copout in terms of trying to legitimately, honestly help people out.Value matters, son.
^ Berry says Romo’s a 1st round pick – Simmons puts him ahead of Manning!!!Don’t quit the day job, chowd.
^ Berry says go RB/WR first time around, then Brees, then Roethlisberger alone on the next tier!!!
^ Berry has Garrard 8th on his QB rankings, notwithstanding still no front-line WRs.
^ Berry has Peyton Manning #30 overall on his board!!!Classic “shock value for the sake of it” from Matt Berry, a lot like when his boy Simmons embarrassed himself by saying the Cleveland Cavaliers would miss the playoffs altogether last year.
^ Berry has Braylon Edwards #3 at WR, Reggie Wayne at #4, Colston #5 – sounds about right to us.
^ Berry’s big comeback sleeper is Donovan McNabb, with Marc Bulger and Torry Holt fitting the bill also, as well as Hines Ward and the Steelers’ passing game overall.
^ Berry is high on the Jets!!! Loves Cotchery and Thomas Jones (what else is new?).He’s such a bandwagon boy.
^ Berry is high on the Redskins!!!
^ Berry three biggest sleepers: Chris Johnson, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton – others: Ted Ginn, DeSean Jackson (#1 Philly WR in his book!!!), Darren McFadden to be an excellent #2 RB in his top 20 at the position!!!, Troy Smith, Patrick Crayton, Tony Scheffler.
^ Simmons would want to be picking in the #1 spot if possible, with #10 as a second choice!!!So at least he’s consistent about being random.
^ Berry wrote about the death of the 2 RB in 1st 2 rounds Theory – only 7 of 30 top points-scorers last year on ESPN system were RBs – I’m sure he apologized for steering people that way!!!That’s sarcasm right there, folks.
^ ESPN does have an auction version of a fantasy setup this year.
Fantasy Hockey Notes ^ With all due respect to the fine folks at the 2009 NHL Yearbook (an otherwise sterling publication), their fantasy rankings are a mess. They rank the Top 15 goalies together and the Top 50 non-goalies together. So far, so good -- but the problem is in how they do it. 23 of the top 50 non-goalies are from the center (centre to our fine Canadian readers!) position, which is ludicrous. As is the case many years, the center pool is the deepest in terms of impact players; hence, the value of all but the top few players is minimized at least a bit proportionally because of that. In other words, you can wait awhile during the draft for your top center if you miss out on Crosby or Malkin and you can certainly wait on your #2 center. Positions of greater scarcity need to be represented much stronger in the Top 50 forwards/defensemen; by our reckoning, no more than 14-16 centers could even remotely be considered in that grouping. Time to apply some of the universal precepts of fantasy value and strategy, NHL Yearbook!
^ However, the NHL Yearbook comes up strong in comparison to The Hockey News Fantasy Guide, because AT LEAST THEY HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRAFT BOARD! You heard our screaming correctly; THN's fantasy guide still does not carry an actual draft board, merely their projections for players and a statistical recap of their recent production! In no other sport have we run across a publication that purports to be all about fantasy sports that is so fundamentally and embarrassingly lacking in the most basic and elementary of advisory tools. Get it together next year, THN, you're better than that.
2009 Fantasy Baseball First-Round Probables
At this time last year, we were touting Hanley Ramirez as an early first-round lock for 2008, a position that most other touts subsequently agreed with and locked in as industry conventional wisdom. In what seemed to be the vast majority of drafts this past year, ARod went #1 and Ramirez followed at #2.
Those two will certainly be Top 5 picks again in 2009. Who are the likeliest to join them in the first round?
^ Albert Pujols is still, well, Albert Pujols.
^ Chase Utley was #3 on our board this year, more or less by default as we saw a big dropoff after the "Big 2." That was certainly no disrespect to him and he continues to cement his status as one of the premier hitters of his generation at one of the weakest positions. Health permitting, mark him down for the first round for the next five years, minimum.
^ After years of being frankly overvalued in the fantasy sense, Grady Sizemore finally lived up to the billing with a 30-30 season that could yet become 40-40. Like Carlos Beltran, though, he's still a four-category player at best as batting average remains a lagging area of production, but he's now a legit first-rounder.
^ Matt Holliday could hit 30-30 as well and proved that he was no fluke in terms of being drafted as the first outfielder in many leagues this year. Like Utley, good health is the only issue for years going forward.
^ While many in this business remain wary of recommending catchers in the first round, we are not afraid if the circumstance warrants it. Brian McCann's ascention to the title of "Best-Hitting Catcher Since Mike Piazza In His Prime" warrants it.
^ Ryan Braun's career trajectory places him in the first round as well, even if he can't get you dual-eligibility next year.
^ In terms of pitchers, Johan Santana has to get the nod on the cumulative basis of a run of dominance that recalls that of Randy Johnson and before that, Greg Maddux. With a greater supply of legitimate ace pitchers in the game in recent years, the value of other candidates takes them out of the first round (see fantasy hockey value analysis in this newsletter).
That's about it for the gimmes, although Jose Reyes with his steals and his (past) power production is right on the periphery of that status.
NFL Regular Season -- Weeks 2-17
Week 2
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 p.m.
N.Y. Giants at St. Louis Rams 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins 1:00 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at TampaBay Buccaneers 4:05 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 4:15 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at N.Y. Jets 4:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 8:15 p.m.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 8:30 p.m.
Week 3
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m.
TampaBay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots 1:00 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at N.Y. Giants 1:00 p.m.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers 4:05 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens 4:15 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts 4:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers 8:15 p.m.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
N.Y. Jets at San Diego Chargers 8:30 p.m.
Week 4
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
(Byes: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, N.Y. Giants, Seattle)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 p.m.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at TampaBay Buccaneers 1:00 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans 1:00 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders 4:05 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at St. Louis Rams 4:05 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys 4:15 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears 8:15 p.m.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 8:30 p.m.
Week 5
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
(Byes: Cleveland, N.Y. Jets, St. Louis, Oakland )
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1:00 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers 1:00 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 1:00 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at N.Y. Giants 1:00 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m.
TampaBay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars 8:15 p.m.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints 8:30 p.m.
Week 6
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12
(Byes: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts 1:00 p.m.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at TampaBay Buccaneers 1:00 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins 1:00 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers 8:15 p.m.
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