Saturday, May 29, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XXI

Welcome to our 86th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. Our archive of past editions is available right here on The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of FantasyDrafthelp.com.

In this week's edition, we bring you the FDH breakdown of baseball’s exploding ace situation.

The FDH Breakdown of Baseball’s Exploding Ace Situation

It is our hypothesis that the game of baseball has changed rapidly over the past 12-24 months in terms of ace pitchers in the game. Let’s start by examining a list of those who have definitively stepped away from the game during that span:

RETIRED (3)
^ Roger Clemens
^ Randy Johnson
^ Curt Schilling

Now, here are the ones who have, in our estimation, embodied the status of aces over the past few years:

LEGITIMATE ACES (10)
^ Josh Beckett
^ Chris Carpenter
^ Roy Halladay
^ Dan Haren
^ Roy Oswalt
^ Jake Peavy
^ CC Sabathia
^ Johan Santana
^ Justin Verlander
^ Brandon Webb

Just to show that the net is not being cast excessively wide, here is our list of those who are not, for reasons of consistency, health or both, considered legit aces:

NOT ACES (10)
^ Mark Buehrle
^ AJ Burnett
^ Cole Hamels
^ Rich Harden
^ John Lackey (this one hurts, because we have touted him so much over the past few years!)
^ Mike Pelfrey (he’s been an assassin this year, but his ERA has been above five for three of his four full seasons)
^ Brad Penny
^ Ben Sheets
^ Carlos Zambrano
^ Barry Zito

Now, here is the list of pitchers who seem to have turned the corner relatively recently to become aces:

NEW ACES (15)
^ Matt Cain
^ Yovani Gallardo
^ Zack Greinke
^ Tommy Hanson
^ “King” Felix Hernandez
^ Phil Hughes
^ Ubaldo Jimenez
^ Josh Johnson
^ Clayton Kershaw
^ Cliff Lee (kind of a late bloomer, but the numbers have been at this level since ‘08)
^ Jon Lester
^ Tim Lincecum
^ Francisco Liriano (actually only now reclaiming his ’06 status after a few years of arm woes)
^ David Price
^ Adam Wainwright

As with the established aces, we have a list of pitchers who we are not quite ready to proclaim at that level:

NOT YET ACES (8)
^ Brett Anderson
^ Chad Billingsley
^ Johnny Cueto
^ Wade Davis
^ Matt Garza
^ Jair Jurrjens
^ Ricky Romero
^ Edinson Volquez

And as an addendum to that list, we have a very short list of likely aces in the making – with the proviso that it is way too soon to put them at that level:

WAY TOO SOON (2)
^ Aroldis Chapman
^ Stephen Strasburg

Perhaps some will quibble with our designations, but even if you substitute one name for another on various lists, you will probably come up with a similar number for each grouping.

These lists bear out the hypothesis stated at the beginning: the number of legitimate aces, real #1 pitchers, has just about doubled inside of the last two years. Again, even if you dispute the 10 existing aces and 15 new aces that we listed, if you are using legitimate criteria, your numbers will be exceedingly close to ours regardless of the pitchers you have on them.

The fantasy implications are obvious in the supply-and-demand picture. Surely the most obvious one is that top-shelf pitching is the cheapest it has been since the steroid era first exploded in the mid-‘90s. Indeed, a case could be made that the anchor arms of the game will be enjoying one of the greatest heydays in the history of the game over the next half-decade – at least.

The broader effect on the game’s power is clear as well. While the HR and RBI numbers have been off the recent peak of 1998-2001 for the last decade, they have gone through ebbs and flows. With about two dozen shutdown wings now firmly in place, a sustained downward spike in overall power is likely over the past few years. Indeed, the “canary in the coal mine” for this notion is the presence of several players at the top of the HR list who are – based on all indications – riding out hot early-season rides (Paul Konerko, Jose Bautista, Ty Wigginton and Kelly Johnson). Subtract them from the mix and you have many of the usual suspects looking to top out in the neighborhood of 40 HRs – a classic pre-steroid era plateau.

So while this trend is not gaining significant traction in the fantasy baseball media, it is clearly evident nonetheless and it carries with it transformative notions about how rosters should be assembled in the next several years.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XX

Welcome to our 85th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. Our archive of past editions is available right here on The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of FantasyDrafthelp.com.

In this week's edition, we bring you the 2010 FDH World Cup Team Draft Board and Suggested League Guidelines.

2010 FDH World Cup Team Draft Board and Suggested League Guidelines

For a World Cup team draft, we suggest any of the following league formulations: five owners drafting six teams apiece, six owners drafting five teams apiece, seven owners drafting four teams apiece or eight owners drafting four teams apiece. The draft should be held in standard serpentine fashion.

Points should be awarded in the following manner as each round advances:

^ 4 points for advancing into the second round
^ 6 points for advancing into the quarterfinals
^ 8 points for advancing into the semifinals
^ 10 points for advancing into the finals
^ 12 points for winning the World Cup

Here is our 2010 draft board:

TOP TIER
1 Spain
2 Brazil
3 England
4 Germany
5 Argentina
SECOND TIER
6 Netherlands
7 Italy
8 France
9 Ivory Coast
10 Portugal
11 Chile
12 Paraguay
13 Nigeria
THIRD TIER
14 Denmark
15 Mexico
16 Serbia
17 United States
18 South Africa
19 Greece
20 Ghana
21 Uruguay
22 Cameroon
FOURTH TIER
23 Australia
24 Slovakia
25 Algeria
26 Slovenia
27 South Korea
28 Switzerland
29 Japan
FIFTH TIER
30 Honduras
31 North Korea
32 New Zealand

Saturday, May 15, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XIX

Welcome to our 84th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. Our archive of past editions is available right here on The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of FantasyDrafthelp.com.

In this week's edition, we bring you the 2010 FDH Fantasy Football Top 36 Overall.

2010 FDH Fantasy Football Top 36 Overall

NOTE: These rankings represent our draft board as of the month of May for a standard 12-team league for the 2010 fantasy football season.

1 Chris Johnson
2 Adrian Peterson
3 Mo Jones-Drew
4 Michael Turner
5 Andre Johnson
6 Steven Jackson
7 Larry Fitzgerald
8 Ryan Grant
9 Frank Gore
10 Ray Rice
11 Reggie Wayne
12 Knowshon Moreno

13 Drew Brees
14 Vincent Jackson
15 Peyton Manning
16 Roddy White
17 Marion Barber
18 Calvin Johnson
19 Philip Rivers
20 Brandon Marshall
21 Miles Austin
22 DeSean Jackson
23 Tom Brady
24 Randy Moss

25 Aaron Rodgers
26 Sidney Rice
27 Marques Colston
28 Matt Schaub
29 Tony Romo
30 DeAngelo Williams
31 Beanie Wells
32 Cedric Benson
33 Jonathan Stewart
34 Matt Forte
35 Ronnie Brown
36 LeSean McCoy

Sunday, May 09, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XVIII

Welcome to our 83rd edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. Our archive of past editions is available right here on The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of FantasyDrafthelp.com.

In this week's edition, we bring you the Fantasy Baseball Buy Low, Sell High.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Low, Sell High

BUY LOW

^ Clayton Kershaw: On the off-chance that an owner in your league is sufficiently bothered by the WHIP – pounce!

^ Justin Verlander: Relax, he’s prone to bad stretches – and this has certainly been one of them.

^ Cole Hamels: Including spring training, he’s still shown this year that he’s still got it, but the problem has been that it’s only coming in spurts.

^ Curtis Granderson: The move to New York hasn’t started on the right foot, but when he comes back healthy to a team that has already been successful this year, he’ll be in as pressure-free an environment as he could have wanted.

^ Grady Sizemore: This year, he’s healthy and in a slump, which puts him way ahead of last year.


SELL HIGH

^ Kelly Johnson: He epitomizes the phrase “unsustainable pace” as well as anyone ever has.

^ Wade LeBlanc: See Kelly Johnson.

^ Dustin Pedroia: He’s in nosebleed territory with this power level.

^ Kosuke Fukudome: Boy, the winds have really been blowing out for the amount of pop he’s shown.

^ Ivan Rodriguez: Batting average is always overrated as a positive measure for catchers (because power is the real separator), so the flashy contact level he’s demonstrating could get some owners to bite on him already.

^ Livan Hernandez: If you think he has the stuff to keep killing it like he has been, you need to surrender your fantasy owner card.

^ Carlos Silva: See Livan Hernandez.

^ Mitch Talbot: Typical hot streak by a journeyman who will look different during his next trip around the circuit.

^ Hiroki Kuroda: The ERA says “Come up for a late nightcap, Big Boy” and the WHIP says “You’re like a brother to me.”

Sunday, May 02, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XVII

Welcome to our 82nd edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. Our archive of past editions is available right here on The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of FantasyDrafthelp.com.

In this week's edition, we bring you the FDH Top 20 Fantasy Football Rookies of 2010.

FDH Top 20 Fantasy Football Rookies of 2010

1 Ryan Mathews – He’ll get the most good opportunities of any ’10 rookie, taking the place of LT in the San Diego offense and shouldering the load alongside scatback Sproles.
2 CJ Spiller – With teams all clamoring to find the “next Chris Johnson,” workload issues for those of more slight size are not at the forefront right now – but they will be.
3 Jermaine Gresham – The only impact TE in the draft will make more of an impact right off the bat at his position than any WR.
4 Dez Bryant – He will form a solid role in an explosive offense.
5 Demaryius Thomas – QB concerns remain in this offense, but he’s essentially coming in to assume the “Brandon Marshall role” in a Josh McDaniels offense, so you do the math.
6 Golden Tate – Pete Carroll will surely know the way to get the best out of him early.
7 Arrelious Benn – He will provide solid WR play for a team starved for it.
8 Dexter McCluster – He may be more of a gadget player at first, but he has explosiveness in the open field that the team sorely needs.
9 Toby Gerhart – Even serving as little more than a “vulture back” – worst-case scenario – could easily yield double-digit touchdowns.
10 Ben Tate – His new team isn’t used to having a back move the chains effectively.
11 Damien Williams – He could help give the Titans a better 1-2 punch than they’re used to seeing at WR.
12 Mike Williams – See Arrelious Benn.
13 Brandon LaFell – Finally, Carolina gets somebody to fill the #2 WR spot.
14 Joe McKnight – The RB position and the offense as a whole are incredibly crowded with skilled players – big change from last year – but a player as incredible as he is in space will still command some opportunities early.
15 Sam Bradford – Rookie QBs, even winning ones, don’t generally put up huge numbers, but he’s so skilled he could potentially be an acceptable fantasy backup in his first year.
16 Jordan Shipley – While the passing game is now crowded – a nice change for Cincy from last year – he could still attract plenty of attention from QB Palmer in the slot.
17 Montario Hardesty – If he can stay healthy, and if the OL can continue to improve, he’s going to be an incredible “thunder” complement to “lightning” RB Harrison.
18 Taylor Price – A physical speciman with all the skills, he’ll be brought along slowly, but he could still produce early in spread packages.
19 Andre Roberts – He’s part of the “replace Anquan Boldin” committee.
20 Mardy Gilyard – He won’t have much help from the other skill position players, but he’s at least got the best rookie QB throwing to him and he is a playmaker.