FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue VI

Welcome to our 23rd edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009)

This week's edition is completely given over to the exclusive unveiling of our foundation statistic for fantasy baseball in 2009.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Top 100 Ultimate Quantitative Baseline (UQB) Statistic Unveiling

The core of our fantasy baseball coverage comes from our draft board -- and the core part of that device is our UQB statistic. Here's an explanation, from the FDH "We're Unique" page:

"We utilize cutting-edge statistical methods in pursuit of fantasy sports value. Specifically, we use a statistic for baseball, football, basketball, hockey, golf, drag racing and NASCAR based on the concept of standard deviation from the mean. The linked explanation of the concept in Wikipedia is a bit complicated, but we include it to show the intellectual foundation of our work. What does it mean in simpler terms? Imagine, if you will, a spectrum from left to right, with zero in the middle of the spectrum. Numbers to the left of zero are negative, while numbers to the right of zero are positive. For each commonly utilized fantasy statistical category in a given sport (i.e. home runs in baseball), we calculate this standard deviation from the mean number, and then add up the numbers from all of the categories (making necessary adjustment) to find a composite score. In so doing, we measure production on a per-at bat or per-innings pitched basis in baseball or per-game or per-race basis in the other sports and NASCAR. This statistic allows you to measure exactly how much some players help you in some categories (i.e. Adam Dunn’s home runs or Ichiro’s batting average) and exactly how much some players hurt you in some categories (i.e. Adam Dunn’s batting average or Ichiro’s home runs). While nothing that happens the previous season is a completely reliable predictor for the next season, this statistic offers the most accurate baseline possible in terms of measuring productivity."

For baseball, we measure the UQB per at-bat for hitters and per-innings pitched for pitchers -- so it's only a measure of the greatest performances from the previous season on a pro-rated basis. It is for that reason that players with small sample sizes often put up the best numbers and that is the case again this year as Ryan Shealy and Mike Napoli both posted perfect numbers of 750 on our system. So this statistic can in no way be applied literally to tell you who's going to post the best numbers in 2009 -- but you will find that it opens your eyes to realities that you would in all likelihood otherwise overlook. You will find many surprises as you scan these numbers, as we did when we were finished calculating them. For each surprise that you encounter, you will discover a deeper truth once you start scratching the surface for each player on a pro-rated basis.

For each player, you will find first the ranking that they tallied, then the player name, then the number of UQB points that they accrued, with 750 constituting a perfect score, anything above 500 considered truly elite, anything above 400 indicating fantasy all-star status and anything above 300 considered pretty good. For that reason, it's fitting that 94 of our Top 100 players scored above 300.


1T
Ryan Shealy
750
1T
Mike Napoli
750
3
Grant Balfour
719
4
Rich Harden
672
5
Manny Ramirez
605
6
Rafael Furcal
602
7
Mariano Rivera
597
8
Carlos Quentin
584
9
Carlos Lee
567
10
Cliff Lee
558
11
Albert Pujols
556
12
Dan Uggla
545
13
Brad Lidge
544
14
Ryan Ludwick
537
15
Alex Rodriguez
526
16
Daisuke Matsuzaka
521
17
Shin-Soo Choo
519
18
Justin Duchscherer
517
19
Chase Utley
506
20
Russell Branyan
500
21
Chipper Jones
492
22
Tim Lincecum
491
23
Ryan Howard
486
24
Joe Nathan
470
25
Roy Halladay
467
26
MARK DEROSA
463
27T
Francisco Rodriguez
462
27T
Hanley Ramirez
462
27T
Carlos Marmol
462
30
Brian Fuentes
449
31
Joakim Soria
440
32
Kelly Shoppach
434
33
Adam Dunn
428
34
Kevin Youkilis
424
35
CC Sabathia
420
36T
Joe Mauer
404
36T
Josh Hamilton
404
38
Marcus Thames
403
39
Brandon Webb
402
40
Johan Santana
397
41
J.D. Drew
396
42
Mike Gonzalez
392
43
Ian Kinsler
390
44
Kerry Wood
388
45T
David Wright
386
45T
Frank Francisco
386
47
Lance Berkman
381
48
Milton Bradley
380
49
Matt Holliday
378
50
Chris Iannetta
373
51
Ben Zobrist
368
52
Bartolo Colon
367
53
Cole Hamels
366
54T
Joba Chamberlain
361
54T
Jonathan Papelbon
361
56
Mike Fontenot
360
57T
Jeff Baker
358
57T
Nomar Garciaparra
358
59
Jonathan Broxton
357
60
Brandon Morrow
354
61
Edinson Volquez
351
62T
Carl Pavano
348
62T
Ryan Dempster
348
64
Aramis Ramirez
347
65
Alexei Ramirez
344
66
Ryan Doumit
342
67
Carlos Beltran
341
68
Jake Peavy
340
69T
Dan Haren
339
69T
Ervin Santana
339
71
Mark Teixeira
337
72
Jason Bay
334
73
David Ortiz
333
74
Chris Davis
325
75
Alfonso Soriano
324
76
Adam Wainwright
323
77
Jerry Hairston Jr.
322
78T
Ricky Nolasco
321
78T
Dustin Pedroia
321
80
Scott Kazmir
318
81
Melvin Mora
317
82
Jim Thome
315
83
Chris Snyder
313
84
Evan Longoria
311
85
Ben Sheets
309
86T
Jason Giambi
308
86T
Chad Billingsley
308
88
Aubrey Huff
307
89T
Anthony Reyes
305
89T
Tim Hudson
305
91T
Jose Valverde
304
91T
Derek Lowe
304
93T
Jayson Werth
301
93T
Ryan Braun
301
95
John Baker
298
96
Rick Ankiel
296
97
Magglio Ordonez
294
98
Vernon Wells
293
99
Brian McCann
292
100
Roy Oswalt
291