FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue V

Welcome to our 22nd edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 29, 2009)

In this week's edition, we deliver a sneak preview of some features in our FANTASY NASCAR DRAFTOLOGY 2009 that will be hitting the streets tomorrow, January 30:
^ 2009 NASCAR Overvalued Drivers
^ 2009 NASCAR Undervalued Drivers
^ 2009 NASCAR Don’t Be That Guy!

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 9:00-9:30 PM EST as part of THE FDH LOUNGE on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on avoiding the obvious and trying to be of actual help to you.

2009 NASCAR Overvalued Drivers

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (10th on our draft board, tied for 7th on the experts’ draft board): With only three wins since 2004 and an average finish of 11th place on intermediate tracks (which account for 2/3 of total races) last year, he’s still a legitimate Chase candidate, albeit a lower-tier one.

Kasey Kahne (18th on our draft board, 15th on the experts’ draft board): With a prohibition on testing this year (for a team that really needed more of it) and the departure of Ray Evernham, a step backwards from last year’s 14th place finish seems likely.

Casey Mears (26th on our draft board, 22nd on the experts’ draft board): Another change in rides will hinder, at least in the short term, Mears’ quest for stability and thus, growth.

Ryan Newman (20th on our draft board, tied for 16th on the experts’ draft board): A year in transition at Stewart-Haas is unlikely to conjure up memories of the magical ‘03 season.

David Reutimann (30th on our draft board, 24th on the experts’ draft board): He may take a step back behind some of the other up-and-comers as Toyota’s acclimation process continues.

2009 Undervalued Drivers

Clint Bowyer (11th on our draft board, 14th on the experts’ draft board): He’s one of two drivers to place 12th or better on every track type on average in 2008. Don’t overestimate the transition to a new crew with this steady driver in ‘09.

Kurt Busch (16th on our draft board, 19th on the experts’ draft board): He’s getting a rap as an underachiever, but still won last year and nobody was better on the restrictor plate races in ‘08.

Kevin Harvick (7th on our draft board, tied for 10th on the experts’ draft board): Many fantasy touts prefer flashier drivers, but Harvick just gets it done relentlessly, year in and year out — and he made the Chase the last three years with fourth place finishes in two of them.

Bobby Labonte (21st on our draft board, not in the Top 30 on the experts’ draft board): Talk about steady but not sensational: 21st place in the standings in ‘08, 18th in ‘07 and 21st in ‘06. Show some faith in this veteran.

Jamie McMurray (15th on our draft board, 20th on the experts’ draft board): Reunited with crew chief Donnie Wingo, McMurray is poised to build off of his strong finish to the season.

Paul Menard (25th on our draft board, not in the Top 30 on the experts’ draft board): He battled through tough surroundings at DEI to race strong on restrictor plate tracks and superspeedways. Now this youngster has to up his game on the other types of tracks.

Don’t Be That Guy in Fantasy NASCAR This Year!

Don’t Be That Guy that “marks out” for his favorite driver. If that driver happens to be a good “value pick” on the board, so be it. But if you reach for a driver for personal reasons, you’ll live to regret it. More than in any other sport, fantasy NASCAR owners make foolish picks for reasons of personal fanhood and smart competitors always benefit … Don’t Be That Guy that doesn’t pay enough attention to track types when drafting. You can’t win without a number of drivers who run strong on intermediate-length tracks, because they account for 2/3 of the races — but keep your team balanced overall aside from that … Don’t Be That Guy that overrates “Little E.” You know who you are!

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue IV

Welcome to our 21th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009)

In this week's edition:
^ Unveiling of our NASCAR 2009 Fantasy Rankings
^ The 5-Category Stud: Baseball’s Evolving Breed

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 9:00-9:30 PM EST as part of THE FDH LOUNGE on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on avoiding the obvious and trying to be of actual help to you.

Unveiling of our NASCAR 2009 Fantasy Rankings

In the next week, we will be unveiling our 2009 fantasy NASCAR draft guide. As we mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the heart of our draft guide in any sport is our draft board, so what we have here is nothing less than the heart of the entire document. Now, we urge you to check out our additional features in the guide (which include Most Overvalued Drivers, Most Undervalued Drivers, Don’t Be That Guy, Mock Draft & Analysis, 2009 Sleepers, The Press Pass 2009 Racing Cards Review and Suggested League Guidelines) and not merely the rankings themselves (keeping in mind that there are several pieces of statistical information which accompany each driver on our draft board in the guide). At any rate, here’s our NASCAR rankings for 2009:

First Tier
1. Kyle Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Greg Biffle
Second Tier
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Jeff Burton
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
11. Clint Bowyer
12. Mark Martin
Third Tier
13. David Ragan
14. Tony Stewart
15. Jamie McMurray
16. Kurt Busch
17. Brian Vickers
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Martin Truex, Jr.
20. Ryan Newman
Fourth Tier
21. Bobby Labonte
22. Juan Pablo Montoya
23. David Stremme
24. Joey Logano
25. Paul Menard
26. Casey Mears
27. Reed Sorenson
28. Travis Kvapil
29. Elliott Sadler
30. David Reutimann
31. David Gilliland
Fifth Tier
32. Scott Riggs
33. Robby Gordon
34. Dave Blaney
35. Michael Waltrip
36. Sam Hornish, Jr.
37. A.J. Allmendinger
38. Joe Nemechek
39. Regan Smith
40. Aric Almirola
41. Scott Speed

The 5-Category Stud: Baseball’s Evolving Breed

We always preach balance in any fantasy sport, especially those with a rotisserie component to them. Much like power forwards in hockey, the so-called 5-category studs in baseball offer at least some measure of production in every relevant category.

We’ve seen a bit of turnover in the past few years in terms of these players. For several years, Vladimir Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano and Bobby Abreu all were able to help across the board and were perennial first-round talents. Here are some names to consider for 2009:

^ Lance Berkman. He’s not a speed demon, but 18 stolen bases from the 1B position last year helped his owners disproportionately.

^ Ian Kinsler/Brandon Phillips. Both could realistically be 25-25 guys and maybe more.

^ Matt Holliday: The best power/speed combo you can find in the outfield, even away from Coors.

^ Russell Martin. The same as Berkman, except his 18 stolen bases came at catcher.

^ Hanley Ramirez. He’s now the premier 5-category player at any position.

^ Alex Rodriguez/David Wright. If you grade on the curve when considering high first-round talents, their stolen base totals are impressive.

^ Grady Sizemore. Overrated in fantasy baseball for years, he’s now realizing his vast potential. He has long been graded on his distant upside rather than his immediate value – which isn’t really his fault – but his capabilities are now more in line with the expectations.

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue III

Welcome to our 20th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009)

In this week's edition:
^ Lessons of Fantasy Football ‘08
^ Unveiling of our “Ultimate Stat” for NASCAR ‘09
^ Fantasy Tennis Draft Recap

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 9:00-9:30 PM EST as part of THE FDH LOUNGE on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on avoiding the obvious and trying to be of actual help to you.

Lessons of Fantasy Football ‘08

We brought you The FDH New York Bureau early Top 20 for fantasy football 2009 a few weeks ago and subsequently our 30 honorable mention players. This week, we wish to leverage some lessons from the season that has just passed as we look ahead to the future.

^ The platoon back trend, which we first began discussing in great detail in 2005 (the same season as the excellent article in The Sporting News about the same dynamic), is stronger than ever. The “Thunder and Lightning” combos now used by most teams with a power back augmenting a lead speed back – or a speed back augmenting a lead power back – are becoming a fixed part of the game that will not be easily dislodged. Even two likely first round backs in the 2009 NFL Draft, Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells, are envisioned by many draft analysts to merely be lead backs as opposed to backs with a dominant role. The Matt Fortes and Frank Gores of the world should go no lower than the late first round next year – because there are so few of them at this moment in history.

^ Viva la scatback! While few teams will put their tiny backs in a dominant role like the Eagles have with Brian Westbrook, two super-speedy rookies motivated coaches all over the league to try to find “lethal space weapons.” Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton both reemphasized that size is not necessarily an impediment to becoming a #1 fantasy RB. In a copycat league, this will have ramifications at least in the near future.

^ Larry Fitzgerald is now unstoppable! The New York Bureau had the foresight to proclaim him the #1 WR in fantasy weeks ago, but the playoffs are providing the stage for the blossoming of a truly rare talent. We’ve seen what he can do even without #2 WR Anquan Boldin – which is fortunate, because he’ll be sulking in a different-colored uniform next year – and for a player whose psyche is very important to his game, the notion that he now understands his capabilities is frightening indeed.

^ Chaos after Drew Brees at QB. Brees put up one of the great statistical seasons ever at the passer position, in a year when he had tremendous flux around him due to a rash of injuries, so it’s anything but overly optimistic to state that an even better ’09 might be in store. As such, he’s mighty valuable, because the folks behind him all have questions attached to them. What’s up with Tony Romo and will he still have T.O. next year? How long can Kurt Warner keep it going and will the loss of Boldin hurt his numbers significantly? As the Indy passing game becomes “Reggie Wayne and then everyone else” to a greater degree, will Peyton Manning’s numbers pay a price? What can be expected of Tom Brady with all of the physical questions? How will Jay Cutler respond to a new offensive system? Can Philip Rivers handle the pressure without L.T. (potentially) as a cushion for the offense? Will Aaron Rodgers continue to show progress? Brees is the only QB without questions on the scale of the ones we’ve listed here, and scarcity (in this case, sure-thing quarterbacks) leads to great value.

Unveiling of our “Ultimate Stat” for NASCAR ‘09

Our fantasy NASCAR draft guide will be released in early February. The centerpiece of that guide, as it is with any of our draft publications, is our draft board with all of the key information contained within – and one of those key pieces of information is our Ultimate Quantitative Stat (UQB).

What is the UQB, you might ask? Well, we’ll borrow an explanation from the “We’re Unique” page on FantasyDrafthelp.com.

“We utilize cutting-edge statistical methods in pursuit of fantasy sports value. Specifically, we use a statistic for baseball, football, basketball, hockey, golf, drag racing and NASCAR based on the concept of standard deviation from the mean. The linked explanation of the concept in Wikipedia is a bit complicated, but we include it to show the intellectual foundation of our work. What does it mean in simpler terms? Imagine, if you will, a spectrum from left to right, with zero in the middle of the spectrum. Numbers to the left of zero are negative, while numbers to the right of zero are positive. For each commonly utilized fantasy statistical category in a given sport (i.e. home runs in baseball), we calculate this standard deviation from the mean number, and then add up the numbers from all of the categories (making necessary adjustment) to find a composite score. In so doing, we measure production on a per-at bat or per-innings pitched basis in baseball or per-game or per-race basis in the other sports and NASCAR. This statistic allows you to measure exactly how much some players help you in some categories (i.e. Adam Dunn’s home runs or Ichiro’s batting average) and exactly how much some players hurt you in some categories (i.e. Adam Dunn’s batting average or Ichiro’s home runs). While nothing that happens the previous season is a completely reliable predictor for the next season, this statistic offers the most accurate baseline possible in terms of measuring productivity.”

For NASCAR, we measure exactly how much better or worse each driver rates in terms of their performance on each type of track. We weight the ratings accordingly; for example, the fact that 2/3 of the races are held on intermediate-length tracks gives significant heft to drivers who fare well at that length.

Our forthcoming draft guide will have our draft board and all of the varied elements that are a part of it, but in the meantime, you may peruse our Top 20 UQB rankings for NASCAR ’09.

1. Carl Edwards (147)
2. Jimmie Johnson (145)
3. Kyle Busch (137)
4. Jeff Burton (135)
5. Kevin Harvick (126)
6. Greg Biffle (122)
7. Clint Bowyer (111)
8. Mark Martin (107)
9. Jeff Gordon (99)
10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (98)
11. Tony Stewart (93)
12. David Ragan (85)
13. Denny Hamlin (81)
14. Matt Kenseth (72)
15. Kurt Busch (67)
16. Kasey Kahne (60)
17. Martin Truex, Jr. (55)
18T. Bobby Labonte (53)
18T. Brian Vickers (53)
20. Paul Menard (48)

Fantasy Tennis Draft Recap

Year in and year out, we bring you coverage of not only the major fantasy sports, but also a wide array of niche sports. As such, we bring you here our newly-posted recap of our fourth annual fantasy tennis draft.
On our January 14, 2009 FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER program on SportsTalkNetwork.com, we held our fourth annual tennis mock draft.

SUGGESTED LEAGUE GUIDELINES
^ Ideally, a league should be configured using standard serpentine rules. Previously, we had utilized "The Federer Rule," which forced the owner who drafted Roger Federer to forfeit picks in order to even out Federer's dominance. With a disappointing 2008 season (by his standards) in the books, however, this rule is not necessary in 2009.
^ A league should contain five owners selecting seven players apiece, with each team consisting of three men, three women and one extra "wild card" pick of either gender.
^ Tournaments utilized are the Masters events on the men's tour and the Premier events on the women's tour, in addition to the Grand Slam events. All points for the Grand Slam events are doubled -- and here is how points are awarded in the standard 10 tournaments on each tour: 3 points for making the quarterfinals, an additional 5 points for making the semifinals, an additional 7 points for making the finals and and additional 10 points for winning the tournament.

DRAFT BOARD (points listed were earned on the pro tours in 2008)
First Tier
1. Rafael Nadal (6675)
2. Roger Federer (5305)
3. Novak Dkokovic (5295)
Second Tier
4. Serena Williams (3866)
5. Ana Ivanovic (3457)
6. Andy Murray (3720)
7. Venus Williams (3272)
8. Jelena Jankovic (4710)
Third Tier
9. Dinara Safina (3817)
10. Elena Dementieva (3663)
11. Maria Sharapova (2515)
Fourth Tier
12. Andy Roddick (1970)
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (2050)
14. Nikolay Davydenko (2715)
15. Vera Zvonareva (2952)
16. Juan Martin Del Potro (1945)
17. David Nalbandian (1725)
18. Gilles Simon (1980)
19. Svetlana Kuznetsova (2726)
Fifth Tier
20. James Blake (1775)
21. Fernando Verdasco (1415)
22. Agnieszka Radwanska (2286)
23. Fernando Gonzalez (1420)
24. Nadia Petrova (1976)
25. David Ferrer (1695)
Sixth Tier
26. Amelie Mauresmo (1081)
27. Lindsay Davenport (775)
28. Daniela Hantuchova (1192)
29. Richard Gasquet (1160)
30. Mardy Fish (1165)
31. Nicole Vaidisova (715)
32. Stanislas Wawrinka (1510)
33. Gael Monfils (1475)
34. Tommy Robredo (1195)
35. Tomas Berdych (1215)

DRAFT RESULTS
Participants drafted in the following order:
1. Pat Davis, tennis columnist for Most Valuable Network
2. Rick Morris, FDH Managing Partner
3. Jason Jones, FDH Senior Editor
4. Mike Vili, FDH niche sports contributor
5. Jon Adams, FDH niche sports contributor

Here were the round-by-round results (and here is a link to Pat's analysis of the draft)
ROUND ONE -- Pat: Andy Murray, Rick: Rafael Nadal, Jason: Roger Federer, Mike: Novak Dkokovic, Jon: Ana Ivanovic
ROUND TWO -- Jon: Serena Williams, Mike: Jelena Jankovic, Jason: Venus Williams, Rick: Dinara Safina, Pat: Elena Dementieva
ROUND THREE -- Pat: Gilles Simon, Rick: Andy Roddick, Jason: Maria Sharapova, Mike: Juan Martin Del Potro, Jon: David Nalbandian
ROUND FOUR -- Jon: Vera Zvonareva, Mike: Nikolay Davydenko, Jason: James Blake, Rick: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Pat: Agnieszka Radwanska
ROUND FIVE -- Pat: Fernando Verdasco, Rick: Svetlana Kuznetsova, Jason: Nadia Petrova, Mike: Richard Gasquet, Jon: Nicole Vaidisova
ROUND SIX -- Jon: Fernando Gonzalez, Mike: Daniela Hantuchova, Jason: Mardy Fish, Rick: David Ferrer, Pat: Amelie Mauresmo
ROUND SEVEN -- Pat: Gael Monfils, Rick: Patty Schnyder, Jason: Tommy Robredo, Mike: Anna Chakvetadze, Jon: Tomas Berdych

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue II

Welcome to our 19th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009)

In this week's edition:
^ Don’t Trust the Overall Rankings in Fantasy Baseball Magazines!
^ Hoops Buy Low
^ Hoops Sell High
^ Hockey Buy Low
^ Hockey Sell High

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 9:00-9:30 PM EST as part of THE FDH LOUNGE on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on avoiding the obvious and trying to be of actual help to you.

Don’t Trust the Overall Rankings in Fantasy Baseball Magazines!

We’ve talked about this very point on our aforementioned fantasy sports program for years now. Routinely, fantasy baseball magazines (and quite possibly major fantasy sports websites as well, although we are less certain of all of their practices, because it’s a MUCH larger ecosystem) compile their top overall rankings without taking into account how exactly players should be measured against each other at each position.

What do we mean by that exactly? Well, we’ll use the new fantasy baseball annual from The Sporting News as an example. Now, we want to start out by saying that this is one fine resource indeed and if you’re bound and determined to spend your hard-earned money on a fantasy baseball resource instead of waiting for our free FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2009 which will be released by February, you could do a lot worse. We have a lot of respect for what they do – BUT – when we find a big area where we differ, we’ll tell you about it. And as we said, they’re far from the only offender in this regard.

Frankly, their Top 300 Overall list is in no way representative of a draft strategy you should use for procuring players, especially at the positions of greater scarcity. In our draft guide, we utilize a Top 72 overall, showing which players should be selected within the first six rounds of a 12-team draft (we also have dollar values assigned in our guide for the benefit of those in auction leagues – the dollar values track exactly to where we have players ranked on our top overall list, which The Sporting News admittedly gets right as well). Given the inefficiencies that are available to be exploited in your average fantasy baseball draft, you should be able to get more than six players off of that list – no less than seven, quite possibly eight and in an ideal world nine or ten.

Catcher, second base and shortstop perennially produce the most shallow talent pools in fantasy baseball. Most industry touts would probably agree that you’d have a difficult time building a successful team without managing to procure above-average talent at no less than two of these three positions. Inasmuch as there are generally between 5-10 players at each of these positions that fit that bill, if they’re not all represented in our Top 72 Overall (or at least just on the cusp of it), we know that you’re not going to be able to pick the right players at the most difficult of positions. That’s why all of our starting-caliber players at each position are either contained in that Top 72, or in some rare instances are just outside of it.

But that’s not how the top magazines roll! When The Sporting News has J.J. Hardy at #126 overall or Robinson Cano at #128 overall, that shows that they’re not utilizing the tier system in terms of how to rate players. Most people would agree that Hardy, with his power and Cano, with his great and partially-realized upside (albeit with a toe-stubbing ’08 season) would be considered viable fantasy starters – but they would NEVER be available that low. If you’re on that tier of acceptable starters at a thin position, you’re NEVER to be slotted that low.

For that matter, The Sporting News doesn’t even slot the elite at these positions properly against the field. At a position where their rare skill sets really set them apart, Geovany Soto is rated #40 overall, Brian McCann is rated #76 overall and Russell Martin is rated #77 overall (Joe Mauer at #45 is still WAY overrated as he is every year by most touts because he does not have the power that is the true differentiator at catcher, but that’s another story!). The notion that one should wait that long before selecting such obvious early-round talent is patently absurd.

At FDH, we rate players against each other by position and break them down into tiers where we see obvious dropoffs in value, then we determine at which tier break you need to get your first player at a given position, then your second, and so on. By assembling the positional rankings in this way, it allows us to weave together a Top 72 Overall that is a seamless whole. If you apply a common-sense standard to an evaluation of the process, you would surely have to agree that this is the only method by which you can assemble a coherent overall set of rankings. It is obvious to us that our peers in the elite fantasy media, not just The Sporting News, are not piecing together their overall rankings as they should. As such, their products – while possessing some outstanding individual elements in different places – are fatally flawed in terms of their draft boards. Isn’t that a pretty big deficiency to have in your product? We think so.

Hoops Buy Low/Sell High

NOTE: Our recommendations flow from the proven notion that most players end up somewhere close to the range of their lowest potential reasonable projections and their highest potential reasonable projections. In other words, players who are cruising way above their highest potential reasonable projects are generally due for a “regression to the mean” and those scuffling along below their lowest potential reasonable projections are generally due for a “progression to the mean.” Injuries and other changes of circumstance can affect these expectations, but they are a true guide in terms of expectations way more often than not.

^ Carlos Boozer: The ultimate individualist will be very driven to finish the season on a high note when he does return (roughly around the All-Star Game) so that he can hit the free agent market with his usual degree of ruthlessness.
^ Daniel Gibson: As he returns to health, he’ll pick up where he left off before he got hurt last season, which means you’ll be hearing a lot of this: “Boobie for three!”
^ Peja Stojakovic: This streaky player is trending up again; buy his stock now.

Hoops Sell High

^ Paul Millsap: Boozer’s return will severely crimp his opportunities in about a month, although he now clearly factors strongly into the future of the Jazz.
^ Shaquille O’Neal: His recent play is generating euphoria and expectations that his body clearly can’t meet all the way through the season.
^ Derrick Rose/O.J. Mayo: Speaking of euphoria and expectations, these rookies are turning a lot of heads by picking up where they left off in college – but they’ll soon be reaching the point past which they’ve never been pushed physically and “The Wall” bows to no young hotshot.

Hockey Buy Low

^ Erik Cole: After a slow start, he’s coming much closer to meeting expectations.
^ Henrik Lundqvist: Finally, his other numbers are catching up to his nice win total.
^ Miikka Kiprusoff: He’s another marquee goalie with other numbers not worthy of his win tally – until recently.

Hockey Sell High

^ David Krejci: In his second year in the league, do you expect him to maintain better than a point-a-game pace, double that of a year ago? No, we didn’t think so.
^ Devin Setoguchi: See Krejci.
^ Steve Mason: This pace is a heck of a lot to expect from a rookie all the way through the season.

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue I

Welcome to our 18^th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Playoffs Fantasy Preview

^ 2009 Fantasy Football Honorable Mention (Players after the Top 20)

NFL Playoffs Fantasy Preview

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 9:00-9:30 PM EST as part of THE FDH LOUNGE on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on avoiding the obvious and trying to be of actual help to you.

As always, your best Sunday morning option for last-minute injury news: Google News. Although any updates from responsible news providers are very useful, pay particular attention to those who come from team beat reporters, because they are closest to the action. Additionally, here is the CBS Sports NFL Injury page and the CBS Sports NFL Scoreboard page, with all of the individual game rundowns there.

Here are our rankings, by position and overall, for the 2009 fantasy football postseason:

QB

1. E. Manning

2. P. Manning

3. McNabb

4. Delhomme

5. Collins

6. Pennington

7. Ryan

8. Warner

9. Roethlisberger

10. Flacco

RB

1. Jacobs

2. D. Williams

3. C. Johnson

4. M. Turner

5. D. Ward

6. L. White

7. Westbrook

8. Bradshaw

9. J. Stewart

10. Peterson

11. R. Brown

12. W. Parker

13. Tomlinson

14. M. Moore

15. Sproles

WR

1. S. Smith (Panthers)

2. Hixon

3. R. White

4. Wayne

5. H. Ward

6. Toomer

7. Gage

8. A. Gonzalez

9. S. Smith (Giants)

10. Fitzgerald

11. Boldin

12. V. Jackson

13. S. Holmes

14. Berrian

15. M. Jenkins

TE

1. Boss

2. Scaife

3. D. Clark

4. A. Gates

5. H. Miller

6. L.J. Smith

7. Heap

8. Fasano

9. Shiancoe

10. Rosario

K

1. Carney

2. Bironas

3. Vinatieri

4. Kasay

5. Akers

6. Reed

7. Elam

8. Longwell

9. Stover

10. Carpenter

D/ST

1. NY Giants

2. Tennessee

3. Carolina

4. Philadelphia

5. Pittsburgh

6. Atlanta

7. Baltimore

8. Miami

9. Minnesota

10. Indianapolis

Top 10 Overall

1. E. Manning

2. Jacobs

3. S. Smith (Panthers)

4. P. Manning

5. D. Williams

6. C. Johnson

7. McNabb

8. M. Turner

9. D. Ward

10. Hixon

2009 Fantasy Football Honorable Mention (Players after the Top 20)

Last week, we brought you a potential Top 20 for next fantasy football season from The FDH New York Bureau. This week, we bring you 30 honorable mention candidates, in alphabetical order:

^ Anquan Boldin: The epitome of a great #2 WR who is actually more of a “1A.”

^ Dwayne Bowe: He’s developing a nice chemistry with QB Thigpen.

^ Ronnie Brown: He’s all the way back physically and the combo with Ricky Williams will help preserve him – much like the combo at Auburn with Cadillac Williams.

^ Antonio Bryant: He looks to be on the verge, finally, of harnessing his awesome physical abilities.

^ Michael Crabtree: Once in a blue moon, a rookie WR should go this high. He is such a receiver.

^ Jay Cutler: He’s still mistake-prone, but he has a bazooka arm and weapons to match.

^ Lee Evans: He had a down year, but he should continue to gel with a promising young QB.

^ Ryan Grant: He had a disappointing year, but he still eked out 1,000 yards in an offense where the pass sets up the run nicely.

^ T.J. Houshmandzadeh: He’ll produce regardless of where he is next year – he proved that this year!

^ Torry Holt: Everyone will sleep on him next year, but in a new offense and healthy, he’ll at least be a borderline #1 WR.

^ Greg Jennings: He has now assumed the mantra of #1 WR in Green Bay – quite a lineage for that in the last 20 years.

^ Andre Johnson: With a full season with QB Schaub, more TDs will follow – he’s got everything you want.

^ Calvin Johnson: ’08 proved that his numbers are bulletproof.

^ Thomas Jones: He has never been able to string together two good seasons in a row, but he had an excellent ’08 in this offense.

^ Mo Jones-Drew: He may suffer without fellow RB Taylor as a buffer #2, but the OL will be better and he still has a lot of catches and TDs in him.

^ Marshawn Lynch: He’s coming along nicely in all phases, including receptions.

^ Brandon Marshall: He has to be single-covered with the weapons around him, which doesn’t quite seem fair.

^ Darren McFadden: He showed glimpses of his ability in a disappointing, injury-filled rookie year.

^ Knowshon Moreno: He will make an immediate impact on the NFL.

^ Terrell Owens: He didn’t have a great year by his standards, but this egomaniac will have something to prove in ’09.

^ Philip Rivers: He’s now firmly entrenched as an upper-echelon QB.

^ Aaron Rodgers: The wins and losses aren’t there yet, but his numbers in his first year of starting already mark him as a top-tier fantasy QB.

^ Eddie Royal: As this youngster continues to develop, he and Marshall will challenge for best 1-2 WR combo in the league very shortly.

^ Kevin Smith: He did a very nice job under impossible conditions as a rookie.

^ Steve Smith (Panthers): The TDs were not great, but his overall numbers were respectable by his great standards given the two-game suspension.

^ Pierre Thomas: He’s done well this year, and with the Deuce likely getting dropped by New Orleans, he will benefit.

^ Reggie Wayne: His TDs were done and other numbers slightly off as well, but he has certainly taken the firm mantle of #1 WR in Indy.

^ Wes Welker: Not many TDs, but his catch totals are impeccable.

^ Chris Wells: Like Moreno, he’ll come in and make a difference right away next year.

^ Roddy White: Aside from maybe a few more TDs, he’s giving everything you would want.

Happy New Year!

2009 is poised to be the best year yet for FantasyDrafthelp.com and you will see that reflected here on our fantasy sports blog. Our weekly newsletters will continue to be found here, even beyond football season, we'll have programming notes about our Internet TV broadcasts and we'll have other content here to augment what is on the FantasyDrafthelp mothership. Thanks for being a part of our audience and readership and we promise you more of the same analysis and insight in '09.