FDH Insider/Goon Squad October 29

On Wednesday’s FDH Wednesday night on SportsTalkNetwork.com, we will take our listeners and viewers on yet another trip all around the sports landscape.

On THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER (7-9 PM EDT), after our examination of this week’s Top 5 waiver wire selections, we break down every game on the slate for NFL Week 9. Then, in the final half hour, get ready for a little “RESPECT MAH ELIGIBILITAH” as we preview the multi-position-eligible players for fantasy baseball in 2009.

Next, on THE GOON SQUAD (9-10 PM EDT), we examine a stirring celebration of history this past week in hockey: the Canadiens’ Builders Row inductions of the three coaches who spanned four decades and might be the greatest triumvirate of bench bosses in the game’s history. From there, the question of the legitimacy of head shots is coming under more question; we’ll give you our take on the debate. We close by taking a general look back at the first month of what shapes up to be a very exciting season.

Join us for a great Wednesday night as always, only on STN!

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue VIII

Welcome to our eighth edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues:

^ Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Week 8 game-by-game fantasy preview
^ NFL Week 8 top 5 waiver wire pickups

^ Fantasy football heading down the road to a doomsday prophecy?

^ The FDH New York Bureau Report

NFL Week 8

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 7-9 PM EDT on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on helping you determine which of your marginal starters are worth a play this week. Hopefully, your initial draft/auction efforts were successful, because frankly, “playing the matchups” is far from an exact science regardless of what you will be told by other advisory services claiming to possess a crystal ball. But our weekly game notes are designed to try to help you maximize the potential of your situation. We will post this preface to the notes every week to remind you of the context of our advice. Also, each of our game previews links to the page for that game on CBSSports.com, with statistical information and a video preview of each game.

In addition, every week right here we will provide you a link to your ultimate Sunday morning last-minute news source: Google News. Although any updates from responsible news providers are very useful, pay particular attention to those who come from team beat reporters, because they are closest to the action.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

(Byes: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota)

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. RB McFadden is not a great play; you might want to avoid him if you can. His counterpart RB McGahee is a recommended play again after last week and WR Mason rates a rare start against the underachieving Oakland secondary – if he plays.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m. With WR Boldin looking good to go, this looks to be an all-in game for your marginal starters, including both Panther RBs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys 1:00 p.m. In a week with some great fantasy matchups and some really horrible ones, this is another outstanding game. All-in!

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions 1:00 p.m. Three all-ins in a row! Just kidding, but the Redskins do rate that, including WR Randle El, who is usually the only player we are hesitant on from week to week in this offense. For Detroit, it doesn’t go beyond the gimme of WR Johnson as usual.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. Given that we don’t consider RBs Lynch and Brown and WR Evans as marginal plays, the only one in this game on either side that really counts is QB Edwards.

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots 1:00 p.m. If you were wavering on RB Jackson and WR Holt, and we have said that you shouldn’t be, you certainly shouldn’t be any more. Against a secondary in transition, WR Avery is worth a look and there’s not a Pat starter who should be on your bench.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (LONDON) 1:00 p.m. WR Chambers isn’t a strong bet to contribute even if he does play. RB McAllister won’t be suspended yet, so this might be his last recommended start for awhile. Don’t even try to guess who to slot if you have any Saint WR2 candidates until the situation shakes out a bit more.

Kansas City Chiefs at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m. If WR Cotchery is able to play, the Jets are a no-brainer all-in. WR Bowe and TE Gonzalez are as close to being recommended-against plays as they can be with the state of the QB play there.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m. QB Ryan should certainly be sitting and WR White isn’t a great bet either. RB Turner should be a constant in your lineup at this point. Aside from the questionable WR Brown, the Eagles are all-in – unless RB Westbrook’s prognosis is downgraded Sunday morning.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars 4:05 p.m. With the respective state of both offenses and defenses right now, this one is all-out (NOTE: The FDH New York Bureau files a dissenting argument on a player below).

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans 4:05 p.m. Even without QB Palmer, you still can’t chance benching either Cincy WR. Houston is all-in against the Bengal D.

N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers 4:15 p.m. Pittsburgh is all-in except WR2 with the Holmes suspension (and with Moore counting as our recommended RB). The Giants are all-in.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m. Even with two suspect-at-best defenses, there are only two non-gimme (read: non-Gore) plays worth anything here: RB Jones and QB O’Sullivan.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans 8:30 p.m. For Tennessee, don’t go beyond the usual suspects of RBs Johnson and White. If Addai can’t go (probably), don’t look to RB Rhodes against these maulers. Frankly, anybody outside the gimmes of QB Manning/WR Wayne and TE Clark are risky.

NFL Week 8 top 5 waiver wire pickups

1. Javon Walker: Better late than never! Walker is showing signs of life at last and he’s got more raw talent and a better track record than just about anybody else on the scrap heap right now, so that in and of itself gives him value.

2. Donnie Avery: As goes Avery, so go the Rams. His emergence is forcing other teams to play Torry Holt more honestly, which benefits the entire passing game. A rising tide lifts all boats, indeed.

3. Benjarvis Green-Ellis: Before Monday night, you wouldn’t have taken this undrafted rookie on your fantasy team over Joe the Plumber, but he ran wild when given the opportunity. With the injury epidemic in the Pats’ backfield and the need to take pressure off of Matt Cassel, anybody with a hot hand has potential right now.

4. Mike Furrey: Sans Roy Williams, it looks like this guy is right back in his role as Lions’ second wide receiver. It’s a horrible offense, but at least he’ll have opportunities.

5. Antonio Bryant: We named him a few weeks ago to this list and he’s still not widely owned. Jon Gruden says he’s likely to remain the top wide receiver even after Joey Galloway finally gets back on the field, so maybe Bryant is done being a fantasy tease at long last.

Fantasy football doomsday scenario moving forward?

We couldn’t help but take note of a recent report in the Wall Street Journal about a high-stakes fantasy football league that boasts as its participants a number of big-time wheelers and dealers. Not to make light of recent problems, but may we say it’s a good thing that they collected the dues from these guys before the market meltdown in September!

Now, while the worldwide recession is going to dry up disposable income even among the well-heeled for some time to come, clearly we have seen a milestone with a million-dollar league materializing. Insamuch as football is the fantasy sport most reliant on luck by a wide, wide margin, we can think of several other sports that could have offered much better odds with the deployment of the right system (such as anything offered by FantasyDrafthelp!), but that’s not our main point here.

Rather, this story reminded us of an apocalyptic scenario painted a few years back by talented author Mark Barnes. We had Mr. Barnes as a guest on our fantasy webcast, THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER, when his great book THE LEAGUE was published.

The plot revolved around a $30 million league that was formed by some super-wealthy individual players and a few consortiums. One malevolent owner decided to increase his odds of victory by putting out hits (in the mob sense, not the on-the-field sense) on players who performed for other teams in his fantasy football league.

Eventually, puzzled authorities began looking for common threads among the players to go down and the build to the climax of the story was really interesting. We recommend the book strongly.

But again, the book recommendation is not our point here, either. It’s the common thread between today’s Wall Street Journal story and tomorrow’s potential scandal involving manipulation of players who are drafted into high-stakes leagues. Gambling has long been legally verboten in this country, and since the dawn of the fantasy sports era, there has been at least a low-level debate about whether fantasy sports should be classified separately from gambling. There are definitely similarities between the two, with fantasy sports owners essentially gambling on rosters that they have created. You could certainly classify these pursuits as first cousins at the very least.

And high-stakes fantasy sports leagues could ultimately draw them close together in ways that would be unfortunate for both. Already, sports gambling lives under the shadow of suspicion in terms of past point-shaving scandals and the ever-present temptation that athletes often face. Imagine outcomes of games being determined by wealthy megalomaniacs who deploy their means to influence events in a negative sense. It’s a long ways away, probably at least half a decade, but as the industry continues to grow, it will be a possibility – and nothing would be more damaging to the hobby that we all love so much.

FDH New York Bureau Report

By Steve Cirvello

NYB's Sneaky Starts Week #8:

QB: Matt Ryan (ATL at PHI)

RB: Thomas Jones (NYJ vs KC)

WR: Jerry Porter (JAX vs Cle)

TE: Heath Miller (PIT vs NYG)

K: Rob Bironas (TEN vs IND)

DEF: SF (vs SEA)

RED ALERT: (Player coming off injury who could make an impact)

ANQUAN BOLDIN - WR: Boldin is rumored to return for Arizona's game at Carolina this weekend after suffering facial injuries in the Cardinals' Week #4 game against the Jets. If that happens, QB Kurt Warner would have another weapon at his disposal on the road against a Panthers defense that shut down the Saints last week. If he plays, Boldin would have to be a part of the game plan if Arizona has any hope of escaping Carolina with a win.

LOOKEY HERE: Team with favorable fantasy schedule over the next three weeks...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Week #8: vs. CLE

Week #9: at CIN

Week#10: at DET

Though the Browns may give them a test at home, if they can get by Cleveland, the Jags have what appears to be an early Christmas present from the schedulemakers - two back-to-back road games against two of the worst teams in the NFL. Although they will be without their top wideout Matt Jones for this stretch due to a 3-game suspension, Jacksonville's 1-2 punch running game should be able to give them early leads in all of these games. Then it will be up to the Defense to keep the opposing offenses out of the red zone.

The Ricky-O Trio: Questions for FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris

1 - Was last week Matt Cassel's official coming-out party, and will the Pats repeat as AFC East Champs with him at the helm?

If it was consequential, it was only in the sense that it solidifies his hold on the starting job and keeps the team out of any QB controversies that would be ridiculous only because there really are no other internal (or external) options. With Denver’s turnovers contributing to the boatrace effect of the game, I don’t count that as a coming-out party for any one player. My first guess when Tom Brady went down was that the team was still good enough to eke into the playoffs with a caretaker QB and that remains my guess. Presently, we’ve got New England at #10 in our FDH NFL power rankings and Buffalo at #5, so no, I don’t see the Pats doing better than a wild card at this point.

2 - Can either Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger have a bad game this week and still lead their team to a big win in the weekend's top matchup?

Can either of them have a bad game and still win? No. Can either of them have a less-than-sensational game and still win? Yes, as long as neither of them turns the ball over much. Both teams have balanced offenses, so premium QB play will not be necessary to win – but the team that gets it may well prevail.

3 - What do the Colts have to do at Tennessee on Monday night to deal the Titans their first loss of the year?

This one is easy: stack the box. Indy can’t stop the run without Bob Sanders and the Titan offense can’t do much EXCEPT run the ball – although they really haven’t had to do much other than that. The Colts must force Kerry Collins to use his horrible WRs to beat them.

FDH Insider/Goon Squad October 22

On tonight’s FDH Wednesday night on SportsTalkNetwork.com, we begin with THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER (7-9 PM EDT). Right off the bat, we have a look at some developments in the world of fantasy football that have at least an outside chance of leading to a nightmare scenario for the business down the road. We then examine your FDH Top 5 Waiver Wire picks for NFL Week 8 and get the lowdown on the fantasy injury picture from STN’s Ben Chew. From there, we examine Week 8 NFL matchups game-by-game from a fantasy perspective, which will take us into the final half hour of the show. At that time, we review some material from last week’s FDH Fantasy Newsletter relating to trends in Major League Baseball that we have tracked for the past few seasons. How is MLB’s process of “detoxing” affecting the fantasy game? We have the numbers.

Then, on THE GOON SQUAD (9-10 PM EDT), we break down some of the hot news that is circulating right now. From the coaching shakeup in Chicago to Steve Yzerman’s new job leading the Canadian Olympic program into the 2010 Games on home ice to the tragic and shocking passing of young Rangers prospect Alexei Chrepanov, we have our thoughts on all of these matters. In our second half hour, the start of the NHL season goes under the microscope. Which teams have been the biggest surprises, good or bad? Which players? We’ve got it all for you tonight if you’re a hockey fan looking for a one-hour jam-packed look at the world of big-time hockey!

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue VII

Welcome to our seventh-ever edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues:

^ Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008)

^ Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Week 7 game-by-game fantasy preview
^ NFL Week 7 top 5 waiver wire pickups

^ Just released: a direct link to our mega-hoops guide: FANTASY HOOPS DRAFTOLOGY 2008
^ Our first look ahead to Fantasy Baseball 2009: the trends we told you about exclusively at the beginning of the year kept moving forward in 2008

^ The FDH New York Bureau Report

NFL Week 7

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 7-9 PM EDT on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on helping you determine which of your marginal starters are worth a play this week. Hopefully, your initial draft/auction efforts were successful, because frankly, “playing the matchups” is far from an exact science regardless of what you will be told by other advisory services claiming to possess a crystal ball. But our weekly game notes are designed to try to help you maximize the potential of your situation. We will post this preface to the notes every week to remind you of the context of our advice. Also, each of our game previews links to the page for that game on CBSSports.com, with statistical information and a video preview of each game.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19

(Byes: Arizona, Atlanta Jacksonville, Philadelphia)

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. With the exception of WR2 for both teams (Chambers due to injury, Reed due to being a bust), this is an all-in game for your marginal players.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m. Aside from RB Stewart (who is sick but should play) and New Orleans’ foggy WR picture, this is an all-in game as well.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m. Both RBs have bad matchups here, but only Forte is even remotely close enough to “the bubble.” You probably can’t do better than him even under these circumstances, though. QB Orton is worth a rare start as the Vikes will dare the Bears to air it out. WR Berrian is the only other occasional starter worth a look here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m. Without QB Palmer, the Bengals are as close to all-out as a team with Ocho Cinco still remaining as a healthy piece can be. The Steelers, conversely, are all-in.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 p.m. Without RB Johnson, and against the league’s best defense at the moment, avoid all Chiefs like the plague. QB Collins is a good play, as are both of his backs, even if he has nobody worth a start to throw to in this one.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. Yuck! This is an all-out game, considering that RB Brown moved off the bubble earlier in the season and is now an every-week lock.

San Francisco 49ers at N.Y. Giants 1:00 p.m. Start any Giant you have in this bounce-back game, even the locker room assistants! For the Niners, with a QB potentially on the verge of being yanked and a lack of consistency in the receiving corps that should have been no surprise coming into this season, you can’t start anyone outside of your gimme, RB Gore.

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams 1:00 p.m. Monitor the Dallas QB situation and start whoever the Cowboys use – as well as all other healthy (read: not RB Jones) Cowboy starters. With WR Owens’ double-teams coming to an end with the Williams acquisition, this offense will be back to where it was Week 1 vs. Cleveland. For St. Louis, what else is new? RB Jackson and WR Holt only.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans 4:05 p.m. Houston is all-in; Detroit only has the Johnsons at RB and WR to recommend. C Johnson is an elite talent, but could fade from the ranks of the every-week starters in the second half if the guano at QB and WR2 drags him down, post-Williams trade.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers 4:15 p.m. Neither D is even remotely overwhelming enough to keep this from being an all-in special (with RB Rhodes in for Addai).

N.Y. Jets at Oakland Raiders 4:15 p.m. Aside from a banged-up Coles, start all of your Jets and no Raiders not named McFadden.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins 4:15 p.m. Every week, at least one or two games really seem to be puzzles, and this is the biggest one of this week given the Browns’ skitzoid performances this year. For yet another week, every Redskin fantasy starter not named Randle El could be poised for good things, inasmuch as Cleveland struggles with balanced offenses (RB Portis looks like a go). Given the momentum of Monday night, however, QB Anderson, RB Lewis and WR Edwards are good plays, with TE Winslow only a sit-down play because of his, uh, health issues.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8:15 p.m. We wouldn’t touch any Seahawk aside from RB Jones with a ten-foot pole. Tampa’s got their own health issues, though, so in the end, we don’t like anybody here except the two starting RBs.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 20

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots 8:30 p.m. While both rushing defenses are very vulnerable, both rushing offenses have a very muddled picture at the moment, so we can’t recommend anyone in good conscience. The banged-up Bronco WRs should play, so they and every-week play Cutler should be in your lineup. QB Cassel, who has been statistically accurate in his passing if decidedly un-Bradylike as a playmaker, should be in along with your obvious play of Moss in what could be a shootout.

NFL Week 7 top 5 waiver wire pickups

1. Brad Johnson: Raise your hand if you forgot this guy was still in the league. Yeah, me too. He certainly won’t give you Romo-esque production while the starter is rehabbing his pinky in Tijuana with Jessica Simpson, but he has the potential to be an above-average producer in this offense, which would be fitting – because he is one of the few above-average and not great QBs in the recent history of the league to win a Super Bowl. There’s a good chance Johnson will produce better than any other backup you’ve got for Romo right now.

2. Dominic Rhodes: As Sunday proved, it’s all about the health of Joseph Addai. With the star banged up, Rhodes got opportunities and that should be the case for at least another week.

3. Hank Baskett: Bad fortune for Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis owners was your good fortune if you were one of the few who put your faith in the Baskett last week. In an offense that is crowded in terms of offensive opportunities, backups like this guy will benefit when they are thrust to the forefront.

4. Rashied Davis: The Bears still aren’t going to be a fantasy juggernaut any time soon, but the passing game is getting marginally more legit and Davis is a reason why.

5. Shawn Alexander: Now the primary backup running back in DC, and somebody familiar with Jim Zorn’s offense, this onetime megastar will likely get the chance at some point to prove that he’s still got something left in the tank.

FANTASY HOOPS DRAFTOLOGY 2008

Our long-awaited fantasy hoops guide, produced in conjunction with our friends at Sportsology, is now available for free download. With some quality non-fantasy content included also as a bonus, you won’t find a more complete guide for your basketball season anywhere and you can’t beat the price!

First look ahead to Fantasy Baseball 2009

In our 2008 fantasy baseball guide, we had an interesting piece that was a continuation of a theme we have been following: how the “detoxing” of baseball would affect the fantasy game. One of our FDH contributors, Nathan Noy, has had amphetamines legally prescribed to him, so he has been in a unique position to speak about the affects that this drug has on the human body. The supposed removal of steroids from baseball has received an incredible amount of media attention; the supposed removal of amphetamines – not so much. So we have tried to examine the affects of removing both ‘roids and “greenies” from the game. We urge you to read the aforementioned column, on Pages 18-19 of the guide, for full background purposes.

First, in terms of steroids: we saw a trend developing with home runs becoming less valuable relative to stolen bases; that is to say, there will always be way more home runs than stolen bases, but the ratio between the two has narrowed over the last few years and correspondingly, the extent to which stolen bases are more valuable than home runs has diminished. Let’s see how this year’s numbers fit into the pattern:

HOME RUNS PER GAME

2005: 2.06

2006: 2.22 (up 7.8%)

2007: 2.01 (down 9.5%, down 2.4% over 2 years)

2008: 2.01 (same as 2007, down 2.4% over 3 years)

STOLEN BASES PER GAME

2005: 1.06

2006: 1.14 (up 7.6%)

2007: 1.20 (up 5.3%, up 13.2% over 2 years)

2008: 1.15 (down 4.2%, up 8.5% over 3 years)

RATIO OF HOME RUNS TO STOLEN BASES

2005: 1.94

2006: 1.95 (up 0.5%)

2007: 1.68 (down 13.9%, down 13.4% over 2 years)

2008: 1.74 (up 3.6%, down 10.3% over 3 years)

We see here that home runs were hit at the same rate in 2007 and 2008, with stolen bases down a bit and thus, the ratio of home runs to stolen bases changed a small amount – but compare 2008 to 2005, before any serious testing was on the horizon. Home runs are still down over that time (despite one “last hurrah” in 2006), while stolen bases are up fairly consistently over that time.

Now, let’s discuss amphetamines. Our theory was that strikeouts would be way up, as hitters would be unable to catch up to power pitches as consistently without artificial means – but walks would also be on the rise as hitters would embrace more strongly than ever the Billy Beane philosophy of working the count as an attempt to counter their fatigue and regain an edge. Let’s see how the 2008 numbers fit into the pattern:

STRIKEOUTS PER GAME

2005: 12.61

2006: 13.03 (up 3.3%)

2007: 13.11 (up 0.6%, up 4% over 2 years)

2008: 13.53 (up 3.2 %, up 7.3% over 3 years)

WALKS PER GAME

2005: 6.26

2006: 6.52 (up 4.2%)

2007: 6.58 (up 0.9%, up 5.1% over 2 years)

2008: 6.72 (up 2.1%, up 7.4% over 3 years)

It’s almost spooky how much the numbers are up in almost identical fashion over three years! Clearly, our advice about how power pitchers would be much more valuable than usual in this era has proven to be the case.

Stay tuned for further developments, as we continue to break down these trends.

The FDH New York Bureau Report

By Steve Cirvello

NYB's Sneaky Starts Week #7
QB - Matt Schaub (HOU vs. Det)
RB - Sammy Morris (NWE vs. Den)
WR - Wes Welker (NWE vs. Den)
TE - Owen Daniels (HOU vs. Det)
DEF - New England (vs. Den)
K - Josh Brown (STL vs. Dal)

RED ALERT (player coming off injury who could make fantasy impact) Kellen Winslow TE: Coming off their big win against the Giants on Monday Night, the Browns head into Washington to face a Redskins team that lost at home to the winless Rams. If Derek Anderson is ever going to get back to the level of last season, he'll need to get Winslow involved in the offense, especially in the Red Zone. Washington has always been the type of team where you just don't know if they are going to show up or not week to week. EDITOR'S NOTE: Oh, really?

LOOKEY HERE: Team with favorable fantasy schedule the next three weeks:
NEW YORK JETS
Week #7 - @ Oakland
Week #8 - vs. Kansas City
Week #9 - @ Buffalo

If the Jets are going to be any kind of a factor in the AFC East this season, they must take at least two of these three games. All three defenses have been bad this season, and the Jets' passing game must exploit this. The offense must find a way for Brett Favre to get more production out of the TE position (Dustin Keller, Chris Baker) as Coles and Cotchery are sure to face more double coverage as the season goes along, daring the Jets to beat these teams with a running game that up until last week has really underperformed.

The Ricky-O Trio: Questions for FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris

1 - Will the Tennessee Titans walk out of Arrowhead Stadium tomorrow still undefeated?

Yes, they could play 7-on-11 and still handle the Chiefs. They kind of are already since they're dominant despite not really having a passing game.

2 - The Ravens return to their Waterloo of a year ago, where they basically handed the Dolphins their only win of the season. Both teams are 2-3. Who gets back to .500?

I'd love to say that it's my Fish, but I think you have to go with the team with the better defense, which is Baltimore. The kickers are going to be busy in this game.

3 - How much will the Colts miss Joseph Addai at Lambeau Field against the Packers, even though the passing game is clicking of late?
Not very much, and that's coming from somebody who does not think a whole lot of Dom Rhodes. But with the passing game back in gear, Rhodes will be facing a so-so Packer defense on its heels. The Colts better hope they get Addai back soon, though, because they're going to need the legitimacy that he brings that running game pretty soon.

Fantasy Hoops Draftology 2008

Our fantasy hoops draft guide, produced in conjunction with our pals at Sportsology, has been released as a free download! It's got all of the fantasy material you need to succeed this year and enough non-fantasy content to keep you entertained for the 2008-09 hoops season. Enjoy!

FDH Insider/Goon Squad October 15 cancelled

On THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER on SportsTalkNetwork.com, we are bringing you an encore version of last week's fantasy hoops mock draft tonight at 7 PM EDT to preempt a new version of the program tonight as well as THE GOON SQUAD while we finish up our huge 2008 FANTASY HOOPS DRAFTOLOGY in conjunction with our friends at Sportsology. You can also catch our old shows on the STN archives here. We will be back with live programming next Wednesday, October 22, only on STN -- and check back for our fantasy newsletter this weekend, headlined as always by our game-by-game fantasy analysis for the upcoming NFL games.

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue VI

Welcome to our sixth-ever edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues:

^ Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Week 6 game-by-game fantasy preview
^ NFL Week 6 top 5 waiver wire pickups
^ NBA overvalued and undervalued fantasy players for 2008-2009
^ A brand-new feature: The FDH New York Bureau Report

NFL Week 6

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 7-9 PM EDT on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on helping you determine which of your marginal starters are worth a play this week. Hopefully, your initial draft/auction efforts were successful, because frankly, “playing the matchups” is far from an exact science regardless of what you will be told by other advisory services claiming to possess a crystal ball. But our weekly game notes are designed to try to help you maximize the potential of your situation. We will post this preface to the notes every week to remind you of the context of our advice. Also, each of our game previews links to the page for that game on CBSSports.com, with statistical information and a video preview of each game.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12

(Byes: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee)

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m. While both QBs are getting love in the media these days, neither is producing statistics in line with their "bottom line winning" achievements and neither is worth a look here. RB Forte is edging stronger every week towards "fantasy gimme" status and this isn't the week to yank him; while Turner is also moving towards that designation on the other side, it's not a great play for him and if you have a comparable player with a better matchup, take advantage of it. WR White is the other player in this game worth mentioning from a positive standpoint -- if he goes, so pay attention on Sunday morning to late reports.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans 1:00 p.m. Few borderline players look good in this one, but RB Williams is not a bad recommendation along with his "Wildcat partner" if you're hurting for back help this week. Counterpart Slaton should produce well on the other side, while neither QB looks ready to light it up here.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts 1:00 p.m. What a battle of contrasts in this game! WRs Harrison and Gonzalez are the only Colts you even think about benching these days and discretion would be the better part of valor in terms of deploying either of them. The Ravens' RB picture is muddled, but the safest play this week would be McClain, who has been a force on the goal line.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 p.m. WR Williams still thinks he plays for a playoff-bound team. Isn't that precious? Regardless, he and WR Johnson should be in your lineup this week and the Viking O gets a rare "all in" recommendation -- assuming WRs Berrian and Rice will be good to go this week.

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m. Eyeball the injured players up until game time here: WR Colston (more likely to play than not and once again an every-week gimme if he is back), RB McFadden (may or may not go, but a fantasy starter if he does) and RB Fargas (more likely to play than McFadden, but only worth a look if DMc does not go). Aside from that, New Orleans is all-in for this one, including whoever does start at both WR spots (Henderson looks likely to join Colston for now).

Cincinnati Bengals at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m. A game that would have been a good fantasy shootout has been negated by the fact that QB Palmer has been sitting out (although the "other QB Palmer," Carson's rookie brother, could come in if Fitzpatrick stinks up the joint again). As such, for the Bengals, beware anyone except the WRs, while the Jets are "all in," (if Coles is able to play) even though the Cincy pass defense has not been as pathetic as their counterparts up front.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 p.m. Against a fairly tough run defense, stay away from both unpredictable parts of the Carolina RB platoon. WR Muhammad looks good here, QB Delhomme not so much. RB Graham and WR Bryant (in the continued absence of Galloway) are good plays.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins 1:00 p.m. All-in for the Skins (even Randle El, who has been a modest producer and who we have urged you to bench in past weeks), while Jackson and Holt remain must-starts for the Rams. For Holt, though, who has been getting double-teamed all year, NFL may well stand for "Not For Long."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m. Aren't the Broncos due for a low-profile, under-the-radar ho-hum matchup without heavy implications for both teams? Just a random thought. Anyhoo, the entire backfield for the Jags (that's the QB and both RBs for you Steeler fans out there) should produce, while for Denver, injuries scramble the equation. RB Hall will play in place of Young and he's worth a play. WR Royal is iffy at best and his replacements are a big dropoff, so don't consider anyone else except gimmes Cutler and Marshall for the Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m. All-in (with Breaston in for Boldin)!

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m. Philly is all-in except for feeble Westbrook replacement Buckhalter, while the 49ers, who are starting to look "so last month!" are all-out on the marginal players (i.e. anyone not named Gore).

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 4:15 p.m. The "Holmgren Bowl" is one of the hardest to decode this week. QB Rogers should play again, so count your Packers as all-in against the weak Hawk D, while RB Jones is the only high-percentage play for Seattle.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers 8:15 p.m. How much different did this game look at the beginning of the year when QB Brady was supposed to play? Regardless, this one remains all-in, as a shootout should still ensue.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13

N.Y. Giants at Cleveland Browns 8:30 p.m. In this prime-time mismatch, all-in for the G-Men (with WR Smith counting as WR#2) and all-out on the marginal players (i.e. everyone except Edwards, including the injured Winslow) for the Browns.

NFL Week 6 Top 5 waiver wire pickups

1. Domenik Hixon: We told you so! Well, we passed along what was said to us on our show by Scout.com’s Giants Insider writer Ken Palmer, but it came via our microphones! He’s got a slight concussion, so he may be iffy for next week, and Plex Burress is back now, but now that Hixon made the most of his opportunity, you’ll be hearing more from him.

2. Mewelde Moore: It’s not as easy as just plugging anybody in the Steelers’ backfield and watching them go: Kevan Barlow already proved that, and that was when Alan Faneca was still suiting up in Pittsburgh. Now, after this performance against a tough Jags defense, Moore has proved that he can hold down the fort until Willie Parker returns and that he can take some of the heat off of Fast Willie once he is back.

3. Early Doucet: There was a time last fall when it was anticipated that Doucet would be a first-round pick and quite likely the first wide receiver drafted. He showed glimpses of that on Sunday. While Steve Breaston is likely to start in Anquan Boldin’s absence again in the next game, we now know that Doucet can produce even as a #3 receiver in that offense. Actually, if the Cardinals aren’t afraid they’d be killing Kurt Warner with insufficient pass protection, he could have the best four-deep receiving corps in the league if Ken Whisenhunt wants to give the spread some serious looks.

4. Greg Camarillo: Early Doucet took a gilded path to the NFL. Greg Camarillo did not. But this tough overachiever showed Sunday why he fits into the Fish offense so well by working with another smart player, Chad Pennington. You could certainly do worse in terms of your bench players.

5. Mike Walker: He’s got a sprained MCL, so he could be iffy for this game and maybe the next. But he’s worth a roll of the dice because he plays for a team that hasn’t had a legitimate weapon at wide receiver since the salad days of Jimmy Smith and his game against the Steelers was quite promising. He’s got the reputation of someone who can really produce if he stays healthy. Roll the dice on him and you could profit nicely.

NBA overvalued and undervalued fantasy players for 2008-2009
As has become tradition at FDH in 2008, we will be releasing our 2008 fantasy hoops guide as a free download in conjunction with our pals at Sportsology this week. As a sneak preview, here are the overvalued and undervalued players of this upcoming season -- with the working definition being players where we grossly disagree with the conventional wisdom on our "experts' draft board" (a composite of where several of our leading peers in the business rate these players).

NOTE: For whatever reason, only the guards this year have a ton of players out of whack in terms of public perception of production versus reality.

UNDERVALUED GUARDS: Allen, Calderon, B. Davis, Childress, Durant, B. Gordon, Granger, K. Martin, McGrady, M. Miller, T. Parker, Stojakovic

OVERVALUED GUARDS: Arenas, V. Carter, Ellis, Ginobili, Iguodala, Iverson, J. Johnson, Pierce, Roy, D. Williams

UNDERVALUED FORWARDS: Jamison, R. Lewis

OVERVALUED FORWARDS: C. Anthony, Boozer

UNDERVALUED CENTERS: none

OVERVALUED CENTERS: none


The FDH New York Bureau Report
By Steve Cirvello

EDITOR'S NOTE: As he did when he came in-studio for FDH programming back on April 27 of this year, our very valuable behind-the-scenes contributor Steve Cirvello "emerges from behind the curtain" to directly contribute his knowledge of the world of fantasy sports. A longtime producer for us in terms of guest booking and idea formatting for our programs, Steve will issue THE FDH NEW YORK BUREAU REPORT as a sort of newsletter-within-the-newsletter as often as he sees fit and we are pleased to add it for the benefit of our readers.

NYB's Sneaky Starts - Week #6
QB - Jason Campbell (WSH vs. Stl)
RB - LeRon McClain (BAL vs. Ind)
WR - Brandon Stokley (DEN vs. Jax)
TE - Anthony Fasano (MIA @ Hou)
K - Jason Elam (ATL vs. Chi)
D - N.Y. Jets (vs. Cin)

RED ALERT: (Player coming off injury who could make an impact)
Marques Colston - WR: The Saints host a Raiders team that is clearly in turmoil again this season. With Jeremy Shockey and David Patten most likely out of the lineup, Drew Brees and the offense get a big boost with the return of their top wideout. Lance Moore and Devery Henderson got into the fantasy scoring act over the last couple of weeks, but it will be interesting to see how soon Sean Payton waits to get the ball in Colston's hands at home and coming off just a horrendous loss last week to the Vikings.

Lookey Here: Team with favorable fantasy schedule over the next three weeks...
DALLAS COWBOYS (next 3 opponents)
^ Week #6: @ Arizona
^ Week #7: @ St. Louis
^ Week #8: vs. Tampa Bay
If the Cowboys want to go into their big Week #9 matchup at the New York Giants with momentum, they will need big games out of their top players, and their next three matchups are very winnable.

The Ricky-O Trio: (3 weekly Questions for our fantasy maven, FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris):
1) Can the Seahawks and their red cross offense, and much maligned Defense, put up some significant points this week at home against the Packers?

Don't count on it. Even in a highly winnable division, the injuries and inconsistency are rendering this such a lost year in Holmgren's alleged swan song campaign that he's likely to ask Jim Mora, Jr. for a "give-back" on his retirement. The Pack will be motivated coming off of last week's dump-job to Atlanta, so Seattle doesn't get a chance to turn around the offense here.

2) The Dolphins Defense has been quite stout against the run in recent weeks. How will Houston's Steve Slaton fare against them this week?

He'll do pretty well, and I am an admitted Dolphins honk, so I'm showing my objectivity here! At only 82.8 YPG allowed, Miami is proving tougher on the ground than anyone thought they would be, but Slaton can beat almost anyone in space. With Ahman Green back to take away at least some carries -- notwithstanding the fact that the fleet rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Texans thus far -- you have to believe that Gary Kubiak is working on ways to get both backs on the field at the same time. Slaton in the slot would be extra-dangerous, so whether he's carrying from scrimmage or taking one in the flat, he'll be poised for some damage on my Fish this week.

3) Is the Cleveland Browns' season on the line Monday night at home against the Giants?

Well, we discussed my "1A" team, now we get to my "1" team, my hometown Browns. Realistically, the season was on the line Week 3 against Baltimore, the first team Cleveland should have been expected to beat, and they got destroyed. Week 4's "win that felt just like a loss" against the Palmer-less Bengals was pathetic and now they face an undefeated Super Bowl champion squad that, frankly, probably would overlook this game a bit if it kicked off at 1 PM on Sunday but won't make that mistake in prime time. Whether they realize it or not, this team is already playing for 2009, a season that won't include coach Crennel or QB DA. At this point, the Browns are the equivalent of any of the tanking Wall Street stocks that have no end in sight to the free fall. Fantasy owners who built around the Browns, considering their high-octane O in 2007, have to be finding other options in order to stay afloat. If you're a DA owner and it's not too late to handcuff him with Brady Quinn, do so posthaste.

FDH Insider/no Goon Squad October 8

This week’s edition of the FDH Wednesday night on SportsTalkNetwork.com is being completely given over to THE FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER as we hold one of our biggest programs of the year: our basketball mock draft. From 7-10 PM EDT we will be holding our fifth annual mock draft as we help you, our listeners, to get a real sense of the value of this year’s crop of roto players. Join us to get an edge over the rest of your hoops league as we point you towards the best players in the league in the course of our event, only on STC.

As this is one of our most important shows of the year, we will be repeating it in the same time slot next Wednesday, October 15, in the same time slot. We will return with brand-new editions of the INSIDER and THE GOON SQUAD -- with a comprehensive look at the beginning of the hockey season -- at their usual times on Wednesday, October 22.

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume I, Issue V

Welcome to our fifth-ever edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues:

^ Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008)
^ Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008)

In this week's edition:

^ NFL Week 5 game-by-game
^ A member of the Friends of FDH Club, Ken Becks of GridironEvaluations.com, provides a list of top fantasy football performers this week
^ NFL Week 5 Top 5 waiver wire pickups

NFL Week 5

NOTE: Our advice, as it does on our FANTASYDRAFTHELP.COM INSIDER weekly program (Wednesdays, 7-9 PM EDT on SportsTalkNetwork.com), is based on helping you determine which of your marginal starters are worth a play this week. Hopefully, your initial draft/auction efforts were successful, because frankly, “playing the matchups” is far from an exact science regardless of what you will be told by other advisory services claiming to possess a crystal ball. But our weekly game notes are designed to try to help you maximize the potential of your situation. We will post this preface to the notes every week to remind you of the context of our advice. Also, each of our game previews links to the page for that game on CBSSports.com, with statistical information and a video preview of each game.

Week 5

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

(Byes: Cleveland, N.Y. Jets, St. Louis, Oakland )

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. This is a horrible fantasy matchup due to the defenses. We urge you to go "all out" on your marginal starters with the possible exception of vulture backs White and McClain.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m. As we've said, RB Johnson should be benched very sparingly, but this is a bad matchup for him vs. the Panther D. Use your discretion on playing him this week. Stewart and Muhammad both seem poised for big weeks on the other side.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1:00 p.m. Forte should roll for the Bears, but he may be alone statistically in that regard. Only the wideouts will prosper for the Lions; shut down Kitna and RB Smith.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers 1:00 p.m. Turner and White, the usual suspects for Atlanta, should both be in this week. For Green Bay, monitor Rodgers up until game time and play him if he's a go. Both of his WRs should be in regardless, as should RB Grant, who should start to bounce back this week.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 1:00 p.m. Although we really like Schaub and always have, don't be fooled by last week's outburst into thinking it will automatically carry over this week. It will not, and he should be benched, although WR Johnson is still an every-week guy and RB Slaton has a great matchup. WR Harrison is not yet a good play for Indy as they will be focusing on trying to protect their defense by improving the 24:42 average time of possession.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. Okay, we are now believers! RB Brown is back to the point of being an every-week play. QB Pennington should be chucking it a lot in the likelihood that San Diego gets up, so he's a better-than-usual bet this week. For San Diego, no surprise, it's all-in again.

Seattle Seahawks at N.Y. Giants 1:00 p.m. Don't buy the hype on the alleged return of the Seattle passing game yet now that some WRs are healing; RB Jones remains the only start-worthy Hawk in this game. Most Giants are now every-week starters; WR Smith is one of the few who is not, but he should definitely be in your lineup in Burress' absence. WR Dixon is also a great super-deep sleeper.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m. This shapes up as an all-in game, unless Westbrook is an unexpected scratch; Buckhalter is not a worthy replacement in your lineup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m. This game is all-in with the exception of Tampa WR2, since Galloway is sitting out again.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m. The Cards, who are very comfortable at home, are an all-in recommendation in this game, while the Edwards-Evans battery for the Bills should both be among the marginal starters you should be considering this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys 4:15 p.m. If QB Palmer starts, which it looks like he will, he should be in your lineup. Actually, Cincy is almost an all-in to match Dallas' all-in with the exception of sub-par RB Perry.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 p.m. When the team of the '00s faces the team of the '80s, forget what you remember of their great offenses from those days. This is an all-out game for marginal players.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars 8:15 p.m. WRs Ward and Holmes will see plenty of action with no semblance of a Pittsburgh running game now. Jacksonville should be all-out in a bad fantasy game.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints 8:30 p.m. The key marginal plays on either side are the #1 WRs: Berrian should finally start to bear fruit and Moore will look to keep his super momentum going.

Ken Becks' Big Fantasy Recommendations for NFL Week 5

Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart vs Chiefs D
Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson vs Bears D
Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner vs Packers D
San Diego Chargers WR starters vs Dolphins D
Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton vs Colts D
San Francisco RB Frank Gore vs Pats D
Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber/Felix Jones vs Bengals D

NFL Week 5 Top 5 waiver wire pickups

1. Lance Moore – Somebody was going to step up in the absence of Marques Colston, and whether or not he was the most likely candidate, he made the most decisive statement. With the #1 wide receiver on the shelf for a few more weeks, Moore could provide more production in the weeks to come. Plus, he’s way more available than Robert Meachem, who is already owned in more than 40% of CBS leagues.

2. Steve Breaston – Bona fide #3 receivers in explosive offenses can be worthy of starts during bye weeks during certain circumstances, but Breaston could exceed that upside if Anquan Boldin is slow in returning from his head injury. He’s an elusive player and could have more games like the one against the Jets.

3. Domenik Hixon – With only 2% ownership in CBS leagues right now notwithstanding the fact that he will start this week for the Giants in Plax Burress’s absence, Hixon is the best-kept secret in fantasy football. Ken Palmer of Scout.com reports that the team is thrilled with Hixon’s growth curve and plans to keep featuring him even beyond this week. Grab Dom Hixon now and thank us later.

4. Arnaz Battle – Like Breaston, he projects as a #3 fantasy receiver, albeit in a lesser offense. But unlike Breason, he’s only got the aged Ike Bruce sitting ahead of him on the depth chart. Regardless of whether his team considers him a 2 or a 3, he could have more days like Sunday in front of him.

5. Brandon Stokley – Like Az Hakim, he’s almost the poster child for #3 receivers who can make at least a minor fantasy impact. For what seems like the 29^th time in his career, he’s landed in a situation with outstanding weapons around him, thus allowing him to slip under the radar in his patented role.