FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume II, Issue XXI

Welcome to our 37th edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on FantasyDrafthelp.com. In case you missed it, here are the previous issues: Volume I, Issue I (September 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue II (September 13, 2008), Volume I, Issue III (September 19, 2008), Volume I, Issue IV (September 27, 2008), Volume I, Issue V (October 4, 2008), Volume I, Issue VI (October 11, 2008), Volume I, Issue VII (October 18, 2008), Volume I, Issue VIII (October 25, 2008), Volume I, Issue IX (November 1, 2008), Volume I, Issue X (November 8, 2008), Volume I, Issue XI (November 15, 2008), Volume I, Issue XII (November 21, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIII (November 30, 2008), Volume 1, Issue XIV (December 7, 2008), Volume I, Issue XV (December 14, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVI (December 20, 2008), Volume I, Issue XVII (December 28, 2008), Volume II, Issue I (January 3, 2009), Volume II, Issue II (January 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue III (January 20, 2009), Volume II, Issue IV (January 24, 2009), Volume II, Issue V (January 29, 2009), Volume II, Issue VI (February 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue VII (February 17, 2009), Volume II, Issue VIII (February 23, 2009), Volume II, Issue IX (February 28, 2009), Volume II, Issue X (March 8, 2009), Volume II, Issue XI (March 15, 2009), Volume II, Issue XII (March 21, 2009), Volume II, Issue XIII (March 31, 2009), Volume II, Issue XIV (April 4, 2009), Volume II, Issue XV (April 11, 2009), Volume II, Issue XVI (April 18, 2009), Volume II, Issue XVII (April 26, 2009), Volume II, Issue XVIII (May 2, 2009), Volume II, Issue XIX (May 10, 2009), Volume II, Issue XX (May 16, 2009).

In this week's issue, we bring you:

^ Fantasy Baseball Pitching: 2009 vs. Recent Years
^ Unveiling of "Ultimate Stat" for 2009-2010 Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy Baseball Pitching: 2009 vs. Recent Years

Upon hearing a friend observe that MLB pitching was down across the board this year, we decided to investigate.

Here’s the total MLB ERA through games of Saturday, May 23: 4.46.

And here’s the total MLB ERA for last year: 4.32.

So … good call by our friend, right? Well, kind of. We dug a bit further. Check out the total MLB ERAs for all the other seasons this decade:

^ 4.46 in 2007
^ 4.52 in 2006
^ 4.28 in 2005
^ 4.46 in 2004
^ 4.40 in 2003
^ 4.27 in 2002
^ 4.41 in 2001
^ 4.76 in 2000

In looking at this, there’s an odd kind of effect where ERAs in 2008, 2005 and 2002 were lower than in surrounding seasons, a weird sort of once-every-three years phenomenon for which there is no rational explanation.

So what can be rationally discerned about this year’s numbers relative to recent seasons? It’s an article of faith, justifiably so, that hitting numbers get pumped up as the heat and accompanying humidity rise in areas such as Texas and the ‘Nati. In that light, it’s logical to expect ERAs in the swamp areas to continue to rise. Inasmuch as this ERA is basically in tune with what we’ve come to expect every two out of three years this decade, however, don’t look for it to rise much overall. This means that areas less affected by summer humidity – think places such as Seattle and Minnesota – are very likely to counteract what would otherwise cause a rise in the overall ERA.

Keep in mind, though, that we’ve only seen ¼ of the season play out thus far and that volatility could still ensue regarding the numbers. But the moral of the story seems to be that, yes, pitching is weaker than last year, but last year was an example of the occasional outlier that keeps popping up this decade.

Unveiling of "Ultimate Stat" for 2009-2010 Fantasy Hockey

NOTE: This feature, along with separate breakouts by position, will appear in the forthcoming HOCKEY DRAFTOLOGY 2009, a draft guide with information about the 2009 NHL Entry Draft -- and much, much more!

This is the FantasyDrafthelp.com statistic, the Ultimate Quantitative Baseline, based on the statistical principle of standard deviation from the mean. For defensemen and forwards, the relevant statistics are points, goals, assists, penalty minutes and plus-minus. For goalies, the relevant statistics are wins, shutouts, goals against average and save percentage (with the categories being weighted extra since there is one less). In each category, a spectrum is calculated from the best performance to the worst (on a per-game basis for forwards and
defensemen). The numbers in each category are added together to create our statistic. An additional equalizer is injected to apply more points to each player at the positions of scarcer depth. What this stat truly does is to quantify beyond doubt how the stronger and weaker performances in each category add up to the absolute fantasy value for each player. As such, it establishes a baseline for performance that is more comprehensive than anything ever developed. A number over 300 is considered truly elite. We have listed below the top 50 overall for the 2008-2009 season.


1
Marian Gaborik
400
2
Brenden Morrow
350
3
Alexander Semin
343
4T
Steve Mason
332
4T
Tim Thomas
332
6
Niklas Backstrom
330
7
Roberto Luongo
327
8
Marco Sturm
325
9
Alexander Ovechkin
315
10
Evgeni Nabokov
311
11
Cam Ward
308
12
Pekka Rinne
301
13
Evgeni Malkin
300
14
Mike Green
296
15
Tomas Vokoun
293
16
Ryan Miller
290
17
Chris Mason
288
18
Henrik Lundqvist
286
19
Zach Parise
284
20
Sidney Crosby
280
21
Marian Hossa
279
22
Pavel Datsyuk
275
23
Sean Avery
273
24
Derick Brassard
272
25T
Jonas Hiller
271
25T
Nikolai Khabibulin
271
25T
Ty Conklin
271
25T
Marc-Andre Fleury
271
29
Miikka Kiprusoff
270
30
Martin Brodeur
266
31
Ryan Getzlaf
265
32T
Marc Savard
262
32T
Corey Perry
262
34
Joe Sakic
261
35
Jeff Carter
260
36
Scott Clemmensen
259
37
Jonathan Quick
257
38
Daniel Sedin
256
39T
Rick Nash
255
39T
Daniel Briere
255
41T
Patrik Elias
254
41T
Martin Havlat
254
41T
Tim Connolly
254
44T
Mike Richards
253
44T
Alex Tanguay
253
46
Rene Bourque
252
47
Simon Gagne
251
48
Scott Hartnell
248
49
Alex Burrows
247
50T
Bobby Ryan
246
50T
Brian Boucher
246
50T
Jamie Langenbrunner
246