Wednesday, October 03, 2007

NFL Week 4 Fantasy Notes

Sunday, Oct. 7
Arizona at St. Louis 1:00 pm Just say “No” to the QBs on both sides: Leinart until he proves he’ll be allowed to play an entire game by himself and Frerotte, who, Holt notwithstanding, has no running game to keep the D honest or any semblance of offensive line protection whatsoever.
Atlanta at Tennessee 1:00 pm No marginal Falcons are worth starting, as always (White has far to go to prove he’s not teasing again), while White should be good for a vulture TD at the least and nice yardage through good use at the most.
Carolina at New Orleans 1:00 pm Don’t start marginal Panthers (i.e. anyone not named Steve Smith) until the team’s inexplicable funk ends – and that won’t be this week or possibly anytime soon depending on how long the team is stuck with Carr behind center. Go all-in with your Saints with the exception of Stecker, who has much to prove as the McAllister replacement.
Cleveland at New England 1:00 pm Edwards is nearing “every week start” status for the Browns and could rack up points once the Pats pull away and the Browns are in “chuck and duck” mode. Lewis hasn’t run for much against the better defenses this year, so sit him if you can. Keep going all-in with your Pats until we say otherwise.
Detroit at Washington 1:00 pm WR Johnson should play and is a good option. Campbell may have to throw a lot to keep the Skins in it and is worth your consideration.
Jacksonville at Kansas City 1:00 pm Neither Jag RB is a strong option until the WRs assert themselves and the defenses have to treat them more honestly. Don’t be a “rear-view mirror” fantasy owner and gleefully start Bowe this week.
Miami at Houston 1:00 pm Chambers rates a look as the crumbling Dolphin D may put the Fish O behind even without many Texan weapons. WR Davis is a dark horse for Houston – he is a very talented receiver who is big and fast and it’s been a mystery as to why he hasn’t succeeded yet. He has the opportunity now.
N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm RB Jones could be singing “New York, New York,” with a chance to get on track against a mediocre run defense. If Manning and Burress were marginal starters for you going into the season (i.e. probably only if you’re in an 8-team league), they’re not anymore.
Seattle at Pittsburgh 1:00 pm This game might be the toughest-to-forecast fantasy matchup of the week after Pittsburgh crumbled in the face of Arizona blitzes last week. Leading WRs Branch and Holmes look like decent bets to start as each team should look to establish offensive balance.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis 4:05 pm Pittman has looked good in limited use and shapes up as a decent #2 RB option with Williams gone. Along with Houston WR Davis, your biggest dark horse for the week is WR Gonzalez in this game with Harrison gone – he has 17.8 yards per catch in limited use and will still be somewhat under the radar with the multiplicity of Colt weapons.
Baltimore at San Francisco 4:15 pm The elevation of Dilfer to starter downgrades Jackson’s value sharply, at least this week and probably beyond (notwithstanding their history together). Mason continues to reassert himself at Clayton’s expense, as we forecasted, and should put up at least as much as he did last week.
San Diego at Denver 4:15 pm Even through the tough times, Rivers has been fairly efficient in terms of completion percentage (64%), which bodes well for the continued development of WR Jackson and accordingly, his production this week. Young and Marshall should take advantage of injuries to produce well for the Broncos this week.
Chicago at Green Bay, 8:15 pm With a Bear D that should bounce back at least somewhat and a Packer counterpart playing at a high level, marginal players worth starting are pretty much limited to WR Jennings.

Monday, Oct. 8
Dallas at Buffalo, 8:30 pm With the efficient-beyond-his-years (although certainly not worth a start here) rook Edwards at the helm, Evans is suddenly a starting fantasy WR again. As much as we caution against the rear-view-mirror mentality, Crayton seems a good bet to carry over his momentum against a weak Bill secondary.

Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia


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