Saturday, July 03, 2010

FDH Fantasy Newsletter: Volume III, Issue XXVI

Welcome to our 91st edition of the FDH Fantasy Newsletter, as we continue to bring you weekly fantasy sports updates in addition to our usual content on Our archive of past editions is available right here on The Blog and specific links to past editions are available on the front page of

In this week's edition, we bring you our Buy Low, Sell High lists for fantasy baseball. NOTE: These lists are predicated on our belief at FDH in regression to the mean (super-hot players will most often fall back to a range just above or below their most likely season projections) and progression to the mean (just the opposite for slumping players). Absent the injury factor, these truisms play out over the course of a 162-game season to a remarkable degree.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Low

^ Tommy Hanson: The adjustments he made on Saturday prove that he is on his way to ending his slump, and given his prodigious ability, you can’t wait much longer to get him at a reasonable price.

^ Dan Haren: If his sub-par numbers (by his excellent standards, that is) were really a matter for concern, then top contenders would not be sniffing around Arizona hoping for a deadline deal.

^ John Lackey: We are admittedly always big marks for this guy, but his most recent start shows that the other numbers may soon catch up to the shiny win total.

^ Derek Lee: If you’re going to buy low, then really get a player at rock bottom – and a televised throwdown with Carlos Zambrano fits that bill.

^ Adam Lind: We had him on our list last time and we’re keeping him there, because ’09 showed his upside and his owners have got to be desperate and beyond reason at this point.

^ Nick Markakis: His drought has been power-only, and shows signs of abating, which makes him potentially very valuable with his contact rate.

^ Joe Mauer: We’ve never been high on his power potential (notwithstanding an ’09 that looks more like a fluke every day), but this low rate is unsustainable as well.

^ Mark Teixeira: He’s on this list just about every year at this point and always lights it up past that point.

Fantasy Baseball Sell High

^ Brennan Boesch: Nothing in his minor-league record pointed to this type of insane production, so be ready for it to end at any point.

^ Marlon Byrd: Of his gaudy numbers, a good many of them came early in the season, so he’s already on the way back to earth.

^ Jon Garland: Success in his career has only ever been sporadic – don’t believe.

^ Carl Pavano: It’s possible that this season simply represents the culmination of a long comeback from Tommy John surgery, but that belief also represents a decent risk – especially if you have a chance to take your profit from him.

^ Andy Pettitte: More than a run better than his career ERA at age 38? Oooooohkay.


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